The nearly two-month-long campaigning in Uttar Pradesh has culminated in Varanasi, the parliamentary constituency of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with both the BJP and Samajwadi Party proclaiming comprehensive victories ahead of Uttar Pradesh election results on March 10.
Travelling across the Phase 7 seats, which comprise the strongholds of BJP and SP, threw up a keen contest with both sides ready to upstage the other. Like the BJP has pulled all the stops this time to breach the Azamgarh, an SP bastion, where it lost all 10 seats in 2017 despite winning 325 seats in the state. All top campaigners of the BJP held rallies in the district this time. The SP, in turn, made an audacious foray into Varanasi district where all 8 seats were held by the NDA in 2017, with Akhilesh Yadav drafting Mamata Banerjee in for the campaign.
Two pictures stood out in either camp and may indicate who wins on March 10. One was the Prime Minister’s two-day campaign in Varanasi that seems to have soothed the nerves of many in the BJP camp over the mood in Purvanchal. Many in the BJP were concerned of anti-incumbency against sitting candidates in Varanasi and any loss here would send out a wrong message. But those fears were allayed after PM Modi’s roadshow whose success assured the party leaders that the mood has changed. “People are going to heed PM’s request and vote for us,” a senior BJP leader told News18.
In the SP’s camp, the big crowds at Akhilesh Yadav’s rallies and road shows is reflective of the confidence and enthusiasm on his side of the results. Yadav was thronged wherever he visited, at rallies, meetings and even at his hotel in Varanasi. The SP camp believes people have connected with Akhilesh on issues such as price rise and unemployment. But the BJP points to only young men thronging Akhilesh’s rallies and women seemingly missing from the picture as the rallies invariably turn unruly. In BJP rallies of star campaigners that News18 went to, the front rows were reserved for women who were also seen in good numbers of 3,000-4,000. PM’s rallies in the last phase also saw massive crowds with estimates at over a lakh, BJP leaders said.
The Varanasi Show & Other Key Contests
From Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and Rahul Gandhi to West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee and almost all top BJP brass including party president JP Nadda, chief minister Yogi Adityanath, deputy CMs Keshav Prasad Maurya and Dinesh Sharma, state party president Swatantra Dev Singh, Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Union ministers Amit Shah, Smriti Irani, Giriraj Singh, Anurag Thakur, Dharmendra Pradhan, Narendra Tomar and dozens of BJP MPs camped in Varanasi before the PM’s roadshow on March 4. In 2017, too, a similar face-off between the BJP and SP was seen in Varanasi with massive road shows.
But the contest is fierce even outside Varanasi. News18 went to Jaunpur to witness the same where Malhani seat has an interesting contest between Dhananjay Singh, called Yogi Adityanath’s strongman by Akhilesh Yadav, and SP’s Lucky Yadav who had won the seat in by-polls necessitated by his father’s demise. While the SP is being targeted for being a “party of mafias” by the BJP, Dhananjay Singh, a mafia and strongman is contesting from JD (U). The terror of both the candidates exists on the seat, we found.
A group of men engaged in a conversation at a tea stall went rather quiet when asked as to who would win the Malhani seat. On prodding a bit, one stood up and said Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party is “doing good”, further, he whispers that JD(U)’s Dhananjay Singh, too, can win. Soon, he joins us outside the tea stall down the road. “Sorry that I named both as winnable candidates. You see supporters of Lucky Yadav (candidate from SP) were sitting at the shop and thus no one spoke, they would have beaten me later had I not said SP is doing well,” said the man on condition of anonymity.
In Mau, about 100 km from Jaunpur, a similar epic contest is on the cards as Mukhtar Ansari’s son Abbas is throwing in all his might against a spirited challenge from BJP’s Ashok Kumar Singh who has vowed to get Mau rid of mafia. Abbas is fighting on a Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) ticket and has already got mired in a controversy. The BJP has made Mau an issue of prestige.
Test of Allies
The UP Phase 7 election is also a test of allies on either side — Om Prakash Rajbhar (SBSP), who has shifted the camp from BJP to SP alliance, and Apna Dal’s Anupriya Patel who is with the NDA. While addressing a rally on the last day of the campaign, the PM urged people to vote for BJP’s Lotus and ‘Khane se bhari thali and cup plate’ (Apna Dal symbol). Senior party leaders believe while many know BJP’s symbol, it is tough to get voters realise that they have to vote for the ally whose symbol may not be recalled by them while casting the vote. “It’s a task to make few of the voters identify the ally’s symbol when they want to vote for the BJP,” said a senior BJP leader.
Samajwadi Party faces a similar challenge of telling voters to associate SBSP’s symbol of a ‘walking stick’ with the SP’s ‘bicycle’. Both Om Prakash Rajbhar and his son Arvind are in the contest in Phase 7 and the family’s pride is at stake. In fact, Arvind Rajbhar is pitted against the BJP’s Rajbhar face and minister Anil Rajbhar in Shivpur seat in Varanasi. News18 found a bigger crowd of nearly 2,000 people at Arvind Rajbhar’s cycle road show than much fewer at Anil Rajbhar’s public event. An SP former candidate from Shivpur, who was denied a ticket this time as the seat went in SBSP’s quota, is helping Arvind in the campaign, indicative of a good alliance coordination.
Having bagged more seats this time from its principal ally than in 2017, both Apna Dal and SBSP are under pressure to prove their worth this time.
A New Worry in BJP and AIMIM Factor
A new worry in BJP ranks is that while its workers are taking voters to polling booths, their names have been missing from the list. Some party senior leaders see conspiracy behind getting their voters names slashed from the list. Sources stated that this will impact many seats as it went unnoticed for a phase or two. The Mubarakpur seat in Phase 7 shows the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) may be a factor too. AIMIM candidate Shah Alam had won Mubarakpur as the BSP candidate in 2017 and the BSP had been winning the seat for more than two decades. This time, it is a three-way split contest as the AIMIM, SP and BSP are vying for Muslim voters who are significant in Mubarakpur.
Read all the Latest News, Breaking News and Assembly Elections Live Updates here.