This time a double whammy… after the intense heat, rain is also less: Skymet estimates – Monsoon may remain weak, 94% rain possible

This time the mood of the season seems to be uprooted. There may be severe heat between April and May and then between June and September, the monsoon rains are also expected to be less. According to private weather forecasting agency Skymet, 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall is possible this time i.e. less than normal. 90-96% is considered less than normal, 96-104% normal and 104-110% more than normal rainfall.

More than 110% is called excess rainfall, the probability of which is 0% this time. Less than 90% of the rains are kept in the category of drought, which is expected to be up to 20% this time. There is a 40% chance that it will rain less than normal this time.

On the other hand, climate scientist Karen Hunt of the University of Reading says that the severe heat that broke the 122-year record in February could show more impact in the next few weeks.

It is a big challenge for humans to bear the heat of this time.
The wet-bulb temperature in India (calculated on the basis of temperature and humidity.) can go beyond 35 degrees, which is more than the limit of human tolerance. Apart from the danger of life due to increase in heat wave, drying of the soil also has a bad effect on agriculture. Hard soil does not absorb water, due to which there is a danger of flood.

That’s why it is being said that it will be a challenge to withstand the heat this time. Let us tell you, the forecast of the Indian Meteorological Department on monsoon will also be released soon.

The reason for such weather – the wind direction will change due to the onset of El Nino
According to Skymet MD Jatin Singh, due to triple-dip-La Nina, the southwest monsoon has received normal or above-normal rains for the last 4 consecutive times. Now, La Nina is over. El Nino is likely to increase, in which sea surface waters warm by 4-5 degrees above normal and the easterly to west winds weaken.

Monsoon has been weak due to El-Nino 9 times since 1950. Whereas, in La-Nina, the sea water cools faster. This causes clouds and good rain.

What will be the impact of the weather – production may remain low, inflation will increase
Sowing of summer crops begins from June 1. 70-80% of the farmers depend on rain water for irrigation, if there is less rain, the crop will get damaged. There is also a possibility of increase in inflation due to decrease in production. The share of agriculture in the country’s economy is about 18%, which means that it will also be negatively affected.

States that will be most affected