Does Iran see cyber war as a way to avoid real war? – analysis

Cybersecurity threats have been an increasing issue in the Middle East for more than a decade. However, in recent years the number and type of such attacks has continued to increase and the countries, entities and organizations affected continue to climb.

Iran’s regime periodically mentions its cyber capabilities in relation to threats against Israel and other issues to show that Tehran has various means at its disposal to conduct its operations. To that end, a recent article in Tasnim, a pro-regime news outlet, highlighted Iran’s cyber abilities and that it has sought to target Israeli websites as “part of the cyber war that targets Israel’s security.”

Israel is not the only country targeted by cyber incidents. Cyber attacks originate from many countries and nefarious actors. In the UAE, the Government’s Cybersecurity Council has affirmed its success in defending and confronting various malicious cyber attacks. It said, according to an article at Al-Ain, that the attacks failed to target infrastructure, national digital assets and strategic sectors in the UAE. The report said that the national task force was able to respond proactively to various threats. These include “cyber terrorist organizations” the report said. It did not specify what types of organizations or where they are from.

According to an article in Khaleej Times in the UAE, “Mohammed Hamad Al Kuwaiti, Head of Cyber Security for the Government of the UAE, said that the UAE Cyber Security Council cooperates with its partners in deterring over 50,000 cyberattacks per day, which target strategic national sectors.”

He made these comments at the Oracle CloudWorld Tour Abu Dhabi 2023. The report noted that he went on to say that “ banking, financial, health, oil and gas sectors are the most targeted, noting that all attacks are countered proactively and efficiently, to protect the country’s digital sphere.”

Iranian flag is seen at the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as Albania cuts ties with Iran and orders diplomats to leave over cyberattack, in Tirana, Albania, September 8, 2022 (credit: REUTERS/FLORION GOGA)

An article on the Zawya website, which focuses on business and finance, also noted that the Cybersecurity Council “stressed the importance of confronting various cyber attacks by vital sectors, in addition to activating protection systems and cyber security policies and raising the awareness of the authorities about any suspicious electronic activities that may harm their systems. The UAE is adopting the best standards and practices of safe digital transformation and protection of the national digital infrastructure and space.”

In February, an article at Tech Monitor noted that “the number of cyberattacks by Iran on targets in Israel has doubled in the past year, the director general of the Israeli Nation Cyber Directorate (INCD) has told Tech Monitor. Gaby Portnoy says other countries in the region have also been feeling the effects of attacks from Iranian cybercriminals and called for greater data sharing between governments.”

The recent article at Tasnim News said that Iran had put out a message to the “Zionist regime” through its cyber threats. The goal was to make sure that Israel “never feels safe.” This may be bragging or reflect recent and upcoming Iranian operations. The overall context of this is that Iran has recently concluded a deal with Saudi Arabia.

The cyber front may be an easier way for Iran to brag about attacks that have a kind of plausible deniability. This is because a country can claim it carried out “cyber” attacks and not actually do anything. In June 2019, for instance, the US claimed it launched “cyberattacks” on Iran in retaliation for Iran downing a US $200 million Global Hawk surveillance drone in the Gulf of Oman. Claims of “cyber attacks” are a way for a country to potentially claim it “attacked” without any evidence of an attack leading to a real conflict. Countries can conceivably engage in massive “cyber wars” and no one is injured or harmed and the public may not even be aware and so it’s not clear if a “war” happened or not.

To this end, Iran claims that it has become increasingly proficient in cyber abilities and that this is an important aspect of its modern warfighting. Iran claims that the “occupation regime of Israel is experiencing a new war, which this time is different from the previous wars.”

How is a cyber war different than a normal one?

Iran’s Tasnim report notes how cyber war is different than classical war. “Technological and electronic warfare has been able to overcome many military capabilities, and computer devices and keyboards have become the newest fronts of Israel’s war and inflicted the greatest losses on the most vital and strategic institutions of this regime.”

Iran’s claims come after recent reports about potential Iran-Russia cooperation on hacking and also a report that the Anonymous Sudan cyber group allegedly carried out cyberattacks on Quds Day, the day in Ramadan when Iran focuses efforts on bashing Israel. AL-Monitor noted at the time that cyberattacks targeted banks in Israel and CTech said they targeted the Israel Post and irrigation systems. We reported last year that there has been an increase of 70 percent in hostile activity on the cyber front. Another report, based on data released by Microsoft, also noted that around a quarter of Iranian cyber attacks target Israel. Iran also targets other countries, such as the US.

Iran’s media claims that the “Anonymous hacker group and a number of other unknown and unknown names managed to target the Israeli regime and target most of its critical infrastructures through the use of security gaps in the programs and systems of Israeli electronic databases.”

Iran’s media then quotes Arabic media claiming that there has been an increase in hacking attempts. “The Palestinian resistance and other foreign groups have focused on targeting all the points of presence of the Israeli occupiers in the occupied Palestinian territory.”