The curtains on the high-voltage Gujarat Assembly elections dropped on Monday as the second phase of polling came to an end. The Election Commission of India (ECI) announced on November 3 that the voting will be held in two phases on December 1 and December 5.
The counting of votes for the 182-member Gujarat legislative assembly will be held on December 8.
ABP News with its partner CVoter conducted exit polls to gauge the trend of the polls and give you an insight into the voting patterns across various regions of Gujarat. According to the ABP News-CVoter exit polls, the BJP is likely to sail through, winning 128-140 seats. The Congress, after its biggest win in 2017 since 1985, is projected to win only 31-43 seats this elections. The exit polls also point towards debutante Aam Admi Party making inroads, winning 3-11 seats.
Here’s a detailed analysis of the predictions in the swing in vote share and the seat projections according to ABP-CVoter exit poll.
ABP News-CVoter Central Gujarat Exit Poll 2022 — Vote Share Percentage & Projected Seat Range
As per the ABP-CVoter exit poll, the BJP is likely to gain 4.4% in its vote share in Central Gujarat, which has 61 seats, over 2017. While in 2017 the party had 50.9% of the polled votes in its favour, this year, it is looking at a vote share of 55.3% in the region. Riding on the increased vote share, the BJP is projected to win 45 to 49 seats. In 2017, it won 37 seats in Central Gujarat.
The exit poll has forecast that Congress is likely to lose 9.8% share in votes in Central Gujarat. In 2017, the party had won 39.1% of the total votes polled in the region. With only 29.4% of votes being polled in its favour, the Congress is projected to win 11-15 seats in Central Gujarat.
The new player on the block, the AAP, is projected to win just 0-1 seats in Central Gujarat with a vote share of 10.7%.
Other parties and independents are projected to lose 5.4% share of the votes from the 2017 elections and get 0-2 seats.
ABP News-CVoter North Gujarat Exit Poll 2022 — Vote Share Percentage & Projected Seat Range
In the north, the BJP is projected to win 21 to 25 seats, riding on a 2.7% rise in the vote share over its show of 45.1% in 2017 that gave it 14 seats.
The Congress is again projected to lose 5.4% share of the votes polled from the 44.9% that it had in 2017 in north Gujarat, securing 39.5% of the vote share. In terms of the seats won, it is likely to secure 6-10 constituencies in North Gujarat. This would be a significant drop from the 17 seats it won in 2017.
The AAP is projected to win 0-1 seat in north Gujarat with a vote share of 8.2%. Independents and other parties are likely to lose -5.6% from 2017’s show of 10% and secure just 0-2 seats.
ABP News-CVoter South Gujarat Exit Poll 2022 — Vote Share Percentage & Projected Seat Range
In the south of Gujarat, which has 35 seats, both BJP and Congress are projected to lose a significant share of their votes over 2017, according to the ABP-CVoter exit poll. The AAP stands to be the biggest gainer in this region with a 27% of vote share.
The BJP’s prospects were in question this year in south Gujarat, especially in the seats reserved for scheduled tribes. In the wake of protests over tribal land acquisition for highway projects and Par-Tapi-Narmada linking project, all political parties tried to woo tribal voters. However, AAP is likely to make the most of the discontent in the tribal-dominated region. However, it is projected to win only 1-3 seats in the region.
According to the exit poll, the BJP is likely to win 24-28 seats with a 47.9% vote share. The Congress is projected to win 4-8 seats, riding on 22.9% vote share, a massive drop of 13.5% from 2017.
ABP News-CVoter Kutch-Saurashtra Gujarat Exit Poll 2022 — Vote Share Percentage & Projected Seat Range
The ABP News-CVoter survey has forecast another significant gain in the vote share of the AAP in the Kutch-Saurashtra region that has 54 seats. The AAP is projected to win 17% of the votes polled, that is likely to translate to 4-6 seats, the maximum found in this poll. The BJP and the Congress won 45.9% and 45.5% of the votes in 2017.
However, the Congress is projected to lose 8.7% of the votes this year and win 8 to 12 seats — a massive drop from the 30 seats it won in the last elections. The BJP, on the other hand, has been projected to be the biggest gainer in the Kutch-Saurashtra region. It is likely to win 36 to 40 seats, up from the 23 constituencies that it won in 2017.
Independents and others aren’t likely to have made much of an impact in this region either, with prospects of winning just 0-2 seats.
CVoter Exit Poll Methodology
Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Exit Poll / Post Poll personal interviews conducted on polling day and after polling day among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has a Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll-bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level VOTE SHARE projection with 95% Confidence interval.