The results of the Uttar Pradesh assembly polls will be announced on March 10.
New Delhi:
Most opinion polls forecast that the BJP is going to win by a clear and convincing margin, although, on average, the BJP is forecast to win about 100 seats fewer than in the 2017 landslide.
But opinion polls can be wrong. How can we rely on opinion polls when the record of polls in the recent West Bengal election, held in May, was not that good (see Figure 2) – with the consensus being of a close fight with a slight edge for the BJP. The actual result was of course an unprecedented landslide for Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress.
When polls (and many commentators) cannot see a landslide, it undermines our confidence in polls. Has an underlying fear-factor hit a peak among ordinary voters who answer poll questions, accompanied by a widespread decline in trust?
Figure 2
A strong indicator of trends in the popularity of parties are Panchayat Elections. In fact, historically, these panchayat elections tend to forecast forthcoming assembly elections with a 78% accuracy – which is a better strike rate than opinion polls (see Figure 3).
Figure 3
Panchayat elections were held in UP last year. The results could be of concern for the BJP, while giving Akhilesh Yadav and his Samajwadi Party more hope than the numerous opinion polls. (See Figure 4).
Figure 4
The results of the recent UP Panchayat elections showed a close fight between the SP and BJP.
If the mood of the voters in these assembly elections is the same as in the recent UP Panchayat elections, this is unlikely to be an overwhelmingly clear victory for the BJP as the exit polls suggest. In the Panchayat elections, the SP did equally well if not marginally better than the BJP. And the BSP was not wiped out quite as much as the exit polls forecast. The bottom line is that perhaps this could be a closer election than many are forecasting.