On August 5, when top Congress leaders thronged the streets of the national capital wearing black to protest unployment and the skyrocketing prices of goods, it should have logically had the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP government at the Centre worried. After all, the principal opposition party was raising twin issues that everyone agrees are the two biggest failures of the Modi government, according to India Today’s Mood of the Nation (MOTN) 2022 survey. Official recognition of the fact came the same day as the Reserve Bank of India admitted that inflation “persisted above the upper tolerance band”.
Like most other nations, India too has been bearing the brunt of global political and economic developments—the Russia-Ukraine war and rising crude oil prices. The country’s foreign reserves are depleting, and the rupee has hit record lows against the dollar. Under the circumstances, the ruling BJP should have been running for cover, desperately defending their performance as the country’s top Opposition leaders squatted on the streets of Delhi and demanded answers.
Instead, by evening, the Congress leaders were busy justifying the agitation against price rise and unemployment. The ruling BJP alleged it was a party ploy to divert attention from the ongoing investigation by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) against Congress president Sonia Gandhi and her Lok Sabha MP son Rahul Gandhi on charges of money laundering for transactions involving the Congress party, the Associated Journals Ltd, a public company set up by India’s first prime minister, the late Jawaharlal Nehru, and Young Indian, a private unlisted company where the mother-son duo are directors.
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Just a few weeks ago, when Sonia and Rahul were questioned by the ED, the Congress leaders had staged a countrywide protest. But then critics pointed out that party leaders, who had failed to lead a sustained agitation on any public issue since the Modi reign started, had come out of their cubbyholes only when the Gandhis were facing an ED grilling. The grand old party was hoping the August 5 protest would sweep away that criticism. The BJP, instead, packaged it as a new twist as the protest happened two days after the ED had sealed the office of Young Indian. What’s more, Union home minister Amit Shah found another sinister design in its timing—dismissing it as another subtle bid to promote minority appeasement by the Congress as exactly a year ago Modi had laid the foundation of the Ram temple in Ayodhya.
It’s this issue of wrong timing that has often haunted the Congress in the past eight years. This is not the first time that the party, including top leaders such as Sonia, Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi have hit the streets to raise national issues. From forcing the Modi government in 2015 to retract the proposed amendments to the Land Acquisition Rehabilitation and Resettlement Act (2013) to walking alongside the migrants during the Covid-induced lockdown in 2020, to targeting the government regularly on economic issues, the Congress, particularly Rahul, has donned the role of a fiery opposition in the past. And the MOTN poll suggests that people have been appreciative of the party’s performance as an opposition party—from 33 per cent rating the performance as good or outstanding six months ago to nearly 40 per cent saying so in the current round.
But it has still not been able to take people along as most its actions on the ground have been flashes in the pan. The party hasn’t been able to sustain a long, vigorous campaign nor has it had a cohesive narrative. And most respondents seem to find the top leadership—the Gandhi family—responsible for this lack of momentum. The party continues to project the family as the last hope, but more than half of the respondents say the Congress is better off without the Gandhis. Yet for those who still believe in the currency of the party’s first family, Rahul remains the first choice to revive it. The dearth of leadership is evident as nearly 18 per cent respondents back octogenarian Manmohan Singh, who is almost out of political action, as a possible saviour of the party.
This is in sharp contrast to an ageing Sonia Gandhi, who not just holds the reins of the party, but has also recently displayed renewed energy inside and outside Parliament. But only six per cent think the longest-serving president of the Congress still has it in her to rebuild the party. There is more bad news for Priyanka Gandhi, still recovering from the abysmal performance the Congress put up under her leadership in the Uttar Pradesh assembly election earlier this year. Often projected by a section of the Congress as the alternative to Rahul, she earned the faith of only seven per cent respondents, against 14 per cent backing 44-year-old Sachin Pilot, who has been patiently waiting for the approval of the Gandhis to replace Ashok Gehlot as the chief minister of Rajasthan.
Sonia Gandhi, Rahul and other Congress leaders at the Aug. 5 opposition protests in Delhi; (Photo: ANI)
This diminishing faith in the Congress leadership coupled with West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s troubles in the aftermath of one of her top ministers landing in jail on charges of corruption, has resulted in a disillusionment among respondents about whether Opposition parties can form an effective alliance against Modi. Only 42 per cent respondents think it is still possible, against 40 per cent who had backed the idea in the previous two MOTN polls.
While fewer respondents now see Rahul Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee as the Opposition’s alternative to Modi, Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, now on an expansion drive following his party, AAP, forming the government in Punjab earlier this year, has seen a sudden jump in his ratings. More than 27 per cent respondents across the country find him best suited to lead the Opposition alliance, up from 16 per cent six months ago. What’s more interesting is that Kejriwal’s ratings see a further jump in the west (31 per cent)—Modi’s home turf—and in the northeast (34 per cent)—where the PM’s popularity is the highest.
He may, though, find another challenger in the form of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar who left the NDA on August 9 to join hands with the opposition RJD and Congress. Nitish has demonstrated prime ministerial ambitions in the past and may try to emerge as the rallying point for a united front which has eluded the Opposition parties till now. His personal equation with its leaders, including Mamata Banerjee (TMC), K. Chandrashekar Rao (TRS) and Sharad Pawar (NCP), certainly give him an edge. At the same time, the latter will also be wary of his tendency to do political somersaults at will. There is no doubt, though, that the return of Nitish to the Opposition space will have an impact beyond the 40 Lok Sabha seats from Bihar.