TeaThe railways has been quietly gearing up for a long time about what is in the headlines Biggest industrial battle in a generationNow, with the national strike voting weapon, the RMT rail union must decide whether to pull the trigger.
Its national executive committee will discuss next steps in the coming days, after Network Rail has 40,000 members and 15 train operating companies. massive vote for actionFor now, it’s officially inviting more talks with train operating companies — a stance a bit puzzling to some in the industry, who said RMT had jumped the gun before wage discussions began.
Nonetheless, many expect a series of 24-hour pauses to occur in late June. At an estimated daily cost of £30m, this would prove as the Transport Secretary Grant Shapps Be warned, an industry in recovery mode is very damaging, but not necessarily a full-blown logistical crisis for the country, as some have suggested.
When Shapps said that ministers were considering limiting the right to strike, senior rail figures looked stunned – a move that inevitably enraged unions. The more thoughtful parts of the government are trying quietly to avoid conflict: Bosses are making contingency plans that won’t work if all rail unions join the strike.
For the RMT, there is a significant dent in the otherwise unanimous vote, with Govia Thameslink Railway employees favoring action less than a mere strike. The GTR comprises three major commuter operations, Thameslink, Great Northern and Southern. the latter was a scene of bitter and long strike In 2016-17, there was a time when most of its customers were forced to come to London to work.
Office workers have now proved able to work from home – a change that will ease political pressure from lawmakers in the commuter belt to settle strikes at all costs. And without a continuous strike for more than 72 hours, there is little chance of disruption of freight or electricity supply, despite dire warnings on the vital role of rail freight transport.
The Southern attacks are also a reminder that RMT Train crews alone weren’t enough, however, to completely stop – or completely stop – the reforms they were fighting for.
The critical RMT armament in any strike this time would be its 20,000 Network Rail members, including about 5,000 signallers, who would be able to prevent large sections of the network from moving. But the newest parts of railways – such as the Thameslink and Intercity main lines – use digital signaling that can be operated by a handful of employees, allowing managers and non-RMT signalers to continue limited service.
Other unions may still play a role, including the TSSA, which represents more of middle management – including casual employees – and would benefit in joint action. The Train Drivers’ Union, Asleaf, is unlikely to take action before the autumn – but as a dispute in Scotland shows, the withdrawal of even rest-day work is likely to cause widespread damage to such an industry. There may be an impact that drivers lack.
Still, there is a danger of stalemate escalating. There is no clear answer to the changing travel patterns and low revenue for the Railways, which has such a fixed cost. A target may be rolling stock companies that have consistently made huge profits. But rail wages and productivity will come first – and the prospect of a quieter solution, the kind of index-linked wage growth generally enjoyed across all ranks, has sharply dwindled with inflation.
This raises the stakes for employees, whose wages are reduced, but also for ministers who – despite protests – the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, who appears to be paying attention. Urged to stop salary to check inflationDespite the livelihood crisis.
The big immediate political headache may not be so much that the railway stalls – but the result will be watched carefully by other segments of the public sector, also desperate for a pay hike, which could wear even more the badge of the pandemic’s frontline heroes. Justification in comparison to railway employees.