Last Updated: March 13, 2024, 22:23 IST
According to the opinion poll, the BJP-led alliance may bag a stunning 57% of the votes in the state, while INDIA may net 26%, BSP 9%, and Others 8%. (Representational image/Getty)
The INDIA bloc may end up with only two seats in Uttar Pradesh, while Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party could pick up the remaining one, according to the opinion poll
The politically crucial Uttar Pradesh sends 80 parliamentarians to the Lok Sabha and is often considered the make-or-break state for any party. And, according to Network18’s Mega Opinion Poll, it is “make” for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance and “break” for the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) comprising the Samajwadi Party, Congress, and others in the upcoming elections.
While the NDA is predicted to sweep the state with 77 seats, the INDIA bloc may end up with only 2, while Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party could pick up the remaining seat.
According to the opinion poll, the BJP-led alliance may bag a stunning 57% of the votes in the state, while INDIA may net 26%, BSP 9%, and Others 8%.
Covering 518 Lok Sabha constituencies across 21 major states, the News18 Network Mega Opinion Poll, airing on March 13 and March 14, features a massive sample size of over 1,18,616 respondents, representing 95% of Lok Sabha constituencies and making it one of the largest surveys in the country.
Importance of UP
UP’s significance can be understood from the fact that the state with the second-most seats, Maharashtra, has only 48 Lok Sabha seats. Uttar Pradesh has also given India the maximum number of prime ministers.
The state’s importance is not limited to its numerical strength in the Lok Sabha. Its politics now defines the turning points of India’s political landscape — from the dwindling of national parties and caste politics to religious mobilisation.
Looking Back at 2019
Proving all arithmetic of the SP-BSP ‘mahagathbandhan’ in Uttar Pradesh wrong, the BJP and its ally Apna Dal(S) won 64 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats, demolishing the alliance partners, which got 15 seats between them.
The Congress won the lone Raebareli seat of Sonia Gandhi in the politically crucial state.
Of the alliance partners, the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was the biggest gainer with 10 seats. Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) won five seats and the smallest of the partners — Rashtriya Lok Dal — couldn’t open its account in the polls.
The Congress’s biggest loss was in its bastion Amethi where then party president Rahul Gandhi was defeated by union minister Smriti Irani, who had lost the seat in 2014.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi won from the Varanasi seat defeating his nearest rival Shalini Yadav of the SP by a margin of 4,79,505 votes, bettering his previous margin of 3,71,784 votes in 2014.
Akhilesh Yadav’s wife Dimple and his cousin Dharmendra lost in Kannauj and Badaun, respectively. His other cousin, Akshay, lost from Firozabad.
Mayawati’s BSP had drawn a blank in 2014, but, in 2019, her alliance with the SP paid dividends as her party won 10 seats.
Just ahead of the elections, the SP and the BSP had cobbled together an alliance. The BSP contested 38 seats, the SP 37, leaving three for the RLD. The alliance did not put up any candidate in Amethi and Raebareli. But, despite the alliance, the RLD could not open its account with all the three candidates losing to the BJP.