“Yahan to Bas Modi Hi Hai, Unka Jaadu Barkarar Hai”. Sabir Miya, an aged Muslim voter in Kheda in Gujarat, had told News18 last week when asked why the BJP could achieve a historic win in Gujarat this time. Senior BJP leaders in the state said the target was not the majority mark of 92 seats but 128 seats, which would be the BJP’s best-ever performance in Modi’s home state. The party has not only broken its own record but all records in Gujarat, surpassing the Congress’ 149-seat tally from 1985.
The Gujarat election results on Thursday underlined why the BJP’s formidable fortress remains impregnable, with the voters still much in awe of the ‘son of the soil’ Narendra Modi and the return of the influential Patidars to the BJP fold after wearing off from the experiment with the Congress in 2017.
The ‘silent’ Congress campaign was inexplicable for voters with Rahul Gandhi missing in action and many traditional voters of the Congress felt the party had surrendered arms even before the fight began. The BJP arrested ‘anti-incumbency’ before any damage could be done, by replacing Vijay Rupani as Chief Minister with a Kadva Patel in Bhupendra Patel and changing the entire cabinet over a year before elections.
The newbie in the Aam Aadmi Party did ruffle the BJP’s feathers for a bit but it was too early in the day for them to challenge the saffron party. Modi milked abuses like ‘aukaat’ and ‘ravan’ used by the Congress against him this time.
These are five major reasons why the BJP swept Gujarat.
Modi Magic
With 31 rallies and two major road shows in Ahmedabad and Surat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi led the show this time in Gujarat as well — leaving nothing to chance in his home state which is a prestige issue for his party. Home Minister Amit Shah camped in Gujarat for almost a month to tighten the nuts and bolts of the campaign and ensure the BJP’s poll machinery was fully revved up on the ground.
The 50-km roadshow done by Modi in Ahmedabad last week, which the party described as the longest-ever and claimed over 10 lakh people participated in it over four hours to catch a glimpse of the PM, had settled the debate that the BJP was on the way to a record victory.
All BJP posters in the state had the biggest photograph of Modi among other leaders, promising safety, security and development. In his rallies, Modi carefully raised issues like Gujarati asmita and the state being peaceful since 2002 under BJP rule, rebuked the Congress for using abuses against him and stoked the issue of nationalism which always has a resonance in the border state.
Modi and Shah also went to levels of micro-management, imploring party leaders to increase the voting percentage as part of the BJP’s aim for a record verdict. Yet again, it was the heavy-lifting done by Modi with his campaign which pulled off a record win for the BJP in Gujarat.
Damage Control Before the Damage Happened
Things, however, were not this rosy for the BJP in September 2021, with anti-incumbency weighing on the minds of the party and tiredness among voters of the existing state faces. On September 11, Narendra Modi surprised all by replacing Chief Minister Vijay Rupani and his entire Cabinet of Ministers with a new set of CM and ministers — a move that dissipated any public anger against the BJP in the state.
The party had tested this strategy successfully earlier in Uttarakhand, and also in Karnataka. A fresh start was made in the state of Gujarat, too, with an entire new set of state leadership and making Bhupendra Patel, a Kadva Patel, the CM. This also assuaged the Patel community in Gujarat, which again got a Chief Minister from its fold after Anandiben Patel. CR Patil as the new state chief since 2020 brought new energy as well.
Patidars Return to the BJP
Patidars form 13% of the electorate in Gujarat but command an influence in far greater measure and it was their shift towards the Congress in 2017 that brought it to 77 seats and reduced the BJP to 99 seats. Patidars had been Congress voters for decades before shifting to the BJP and bringing the party to power in 1995. But the 2015 reservation agitation changed things when 14 Patidars were killed during a protest and the community rose in anger against the BJP which even claimed the then CM, Anandiben Patel. Hardik Patel became the face of Patidar agitation against the BJP and it played out in 2019.
But come 2022, things took a U-turn and Patidars seem to be back with the BJP, much like Hardik Patel who joined the party. They seemed satisfied with BJP’s move in 2020 to give 10% EWS reservation from which the Patidars have gained, making them return with their support base to the BJP. The Supreme Court recently upheld the 10% EWS reservation move of the Modi government. The Patidar return has played a big role in the BJP’s record win in Gujarat.
Congress ‘Silent’ Disaster
Much in contrast to the high-pitch campaign of the Congress in 2017 with Rahul Gandhi spending over a month in Gujarat and going on a temple run across the state, the party’s campaign this time was lacklustre and the ‘silent’ campaign of the Congress was inexplicable to the voters.
Many people that News18 spoke to in Gujarat said it seemed the Congress had surrendered arms even before the fight had begun and many of its traditional voters were left perplexed with that, wondering why they should vote for Congress and not the AAP. Rahul Gandhi came just for a day to Gujarat for two rallies and continued his Bharat Jodo Yatra in neighbouring Madhya Pradesh during the peak of the election campaign. Instead of building on the 2017 gains, the Congress went into reverse mode.
Further, the negative campaign of Congress against Modi costed the party dear. Madhusudan Mistry using the ‘aukaat’ remark against the Prime Minister and Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge using the ‘ravan’ comment to refer to the PM did not go down well with the electorate. Modi did not leave out the chance to raise the same in his election rallies to target the Congress.
While local Congress candidates steered clear of attacking Modi personally, the damage was done by national leaders like Kharge and Mistry. The party also did not have a strong state face as an alternative to the Gujarat BJP.
The BJP also scored big in the tribal belt, which has traditionally been a Congress stronghold, as well as made inroads back in the rural regions of Saurashtra where Congress won in a big way in 2017. The entire Congress machinery seemed busy in the Bharat Jodo Yatra rather than in Gujarat.
AAP Was Hyped
The new entrant in Gujarat, the Aam Aadmi Party, created lots of hype but clearly it has a long way to go in a state which has been a bipolar fight between the BJP and the Congress for decades. AAP even announced a CM face and Arvind Kejriwal led the campaign with many rallies and road shows but on the ground, the people still did not see it as an alternative to the BJP or even the Congress.
The freebie promises by the AAP also did not register much with the electorate of Gujarat. The Muslims still seemed to back the Congress. But AAP did make a credible start in Gujarat in terms of vote-share, and also gave a bit of a scare to the BJP in certain regions like Surat, further revving up the BJP campaign in Gujarat. AAP may have made BJP work even harder in Gujarat.
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