Lucknow3 minutes ago
1. The biggest reason for BJP’s big victory?
Undeclared support of BSP. In 156 seats, the BSP fielded candidates who belonged to the same caste as the SP candidate. Of these, 91 were Muslim majority, 15 Yadav majority seats. These were seats in which the SP had a strong chance of winning. In these 156, BJP is leading in more than 100 seats. Here the margin of victory and defeat is also likely to be less.
2. What was the biggest mistake of SP?
Couldn’t extricate herself from the image of the Muslim supremacist party. The way Bahubali Mukhtar Ansari’s son Abbas Ansari threatened the officers. Its effect is also being seen. Abbas Ansari is trailing in the counting of votes.
3. Was the BJP successful in polarizing the Hindu vote?
Yes, Modi-Yogi constantly linked everything with Hindutva. It was started in the first phase itself by Amit Shah from Kairana. And in the last phase, the way Modi stayed in Kashi for 3 days, he was able to prove that he is a Hindu well-wisher. This is the reason why the BJP’s vote share in the trends is 42.5% despite Muslims not getting votes. 3% more than last time’s 39%. SP has 31.6% while BSP has 12.9% vote share. This clearly means that the core vote bank of Hindu Dalit Mayawati has shifted to BJP in large numbers this time.
4. Did BJP win from Ram temple and Kashi Vishwanath temple?
To some extent yes. Although there was a very close contest in these two seats, but both these temples proved to strengthen the BJP’s face of Hindutva. However, BJP is trailing in Varanasi South seat. But the effect of Vishwanath temple is visible in the entire Purvanchal. BJP is ahead in Mathura and Ayodhya seats.
5. So are people not divided into castes?
Divided, but very rarely. In western UP, Jats were divided into urban and rural. There was also a distinction among the upper castes. Dalit votes shifted from the BSP camp to the BJP for the first time. This is the most positive aspect of BJP in terms of future politics. In the same way, Yadav, the largest part of SP in Mai, was also divided into two parts, Ghoshi and Kamaria. BJP seems to be benefiting from this.
6. How long did the Modi magic last?
This time too Modi magic has gone. Modi covered about 192 seats by holding about 19 public meetings. In most of these, BJP is leading.
7. How much work did Yogi’s bulldozer do?
Yogi talked about bulldozers in 58 rallies out of 70. BJP has gone ahead in all these seats. Actually, Yogi made the bulldozer a symbol of action against the mafia. People saw it as an improvement in law and order. The effect of which was also visible in the result.
8. How effective was the beneficiary vote?
Amidst the speculations of victory and defeat, if the BJP had the most faith, then it was on 15 crore beneficiaries. He was also given salt with grain-oil twice a month. At the time of elections, BJP was successful in giving the message that the debt of salt has to be repaid. It is related to the sentiments of the people and to a large extent its effect is visible on the result as well.
9. Issues like farmer-stray animal-unemployment did not have any effect?
There was little effect. But not as much as the BJP feared or the SP expected. The biggest example is western UP. The BJP is ahead in 60 percent of the seats here. It is believed that the Chanakya policy of Home Minister Amit Shah played an important role in the polarization of Hindu votes here. In Lakhimpur in UP, where Union Minister Ajay Teni’s son was accused of crushing farmers with a car, BJP is ahead in 7 out of 8 seats.
10. So, was the crowd seen at Akhilesh’s rallies a rental?
No, it would be wrong to say so. Because according to the current trend, SP even wins 132 seats, then it is getting the advantage of 84 seats. In such a situation, the base has increased from the last time. Yes, the crowd of rallies shows the enthusiasm of the supporters, not the government. A great example of this is also the last election of Bihar. Where even more crowd was gathering in the rallies of Tejashwi Yadav, son of RJD supremo Lalu Prasad.
And lastly the most important two things…
What is the effect on the country? The road to the Lok Sabha elections is easier due to the increase in vote percentage and the votes of Dalits.
In the last election, the difference between victory and defeat was 18%. Usually 5% vote shifting changes the government. Last time the BJP had a vote share of 39%. This time the vote share is close to 42%. It is clear that a new and bigger section came in support of BJP. If we look at the BSP’s vote percentage and the trend of seats, it is known that this vote has shifted from BSP itself. Which can prove to be a boon for BJP in future politics (Lok Sabha elections). It is believed that after the results of the UP elections, the BJP may reconsider the farmer law. Decisions like Uniform Civil Law will now be implemented expeditiously. Activities like increasing Hindutva, including temples in Mathura, will be expedited.
What is the effect on UP? Yogi’s stature increased, Hindutva agenda will now move faster
With the massive victory in UP, Yogi’s face is now being seen as that of the BJP’s central leaders. BJP fought the entire election in the name of Hindutva and action against mafia. In such a situation, the activity of Hindutva will intensify in the coming times. Action on mafia will be accelerated in law and order. The projects which were brought before the elections, including the Purvanchal Expressway, will be accelerated. Because, their success-failure will now be the issue of Lok Sabha. The biggest challenge before the state government is unemployment. If this is not acted on fast, then it will emerge as the biggest issue ahead.
(Analysis updates every hour as the truth gets closer.)