MARGAO: Nilesh Cabralthe power minister in the outgoing government, who had won the 2017 assembly polls by a mammoth margin of 9,000-odd votes, snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in the 2022 polls as Amit Patkar, a political greenhorn fielded by Congress, lost the battle by a slender margin of 672 votes. With Congress having come within sniffing distance of victory, political observers say these are worrying signs for BJP in Curchorem.
The party’s vote share has also declined sharply since Cabral won from this constituency for the first time in 2012 in what was then a straight fight between him and Shyam Satardekar of Congress. Cabral’s vote share was then 72.2% . In the 2017 polls, when Cabral was once again pitted against Satardekar, who had then contested as the GSM-MGP-Shiv Sena alliance candidate, BJP’s vote share dropped sharply to 59.2%. The downward spiral for Cabral continued this time with BJP’s vote share shrinking further to 43.7 %.
The reasons for Cabral’s downturn, political observers say, is the emergence of new leadership in Curchorem’s political landscape, which also holds appeal for the younger generation.
“Also, voters who are disgusted with BJP found a credible and strong alternative in Congress’ Patkar, while those who are also ideologically opposed to Congress, threw their lot in favour of RG’s Aditya Raut Dessai,” a political observer said.
This was also the first time that Cabral faced a real challenger in the Congress candidate, as in the earlier two elections, Satardekar had proved to hardly be a match. With both Cabral and Satardekar having shared business interests in the past, Satardekar had failed to earn the trust of the voters, thereby losing to Cabral by huge margins.
When Cabral was first nominated by BJP in the 2012 assembly elections, the move had stemmed resentment among the RSS cadre. But the saffron party had quickly moved into damage control mode and succeeded in quelling the rebellion over his nomination. It was Manohar Parrikar who had then prevailed upon the RSS cadre to rally behind Cabral, which ensured his victory.
In the 2017 polls, as the ideological battle within the Sangh Parivar over the medium of instruction issue played out, Satardekar was fielded by the Goa Suraksha Manch (GSM). The rift in supporters of the saffron ideology had led to a large section of the RSS cadre throwing its weight behind Satardekar. But the battle turned out to be a cakewalk for Cabral.
This time, however, poll figures indicate a large-scale shift of traditional BJP votes to Congress, leading to a sharp decline in BJP’s vote share, and a huge upswing in that of Congress — from 12.8 % in 2017 to 40.8% now. “The disgruntled original BJP cadre expressed its resentment through the polls,” a political observer said. “BJP leadership realised the threat during the last leg of the campaign and succeeded in winning over a couple of rebel leaders a few days ahead of the polls. The effort somewhat helped in saving the party from what looked like imminent defeat.”
Besides, political observers decode the verdict as a negative vote for BJP by a large section of the electorate upset over issues like large-scale illegal sand mining in Curchorem and fears over the constituency being turned into a coal hub, fears fuelled largely by Railways’ double-tracking project and upgrading of mining jetties. Cabral’s stance, perceived as high-handedness, in dealing with issues of land acquisition for the railway expansion project, also alienated a section of land losers from BJP.
On the other hand, a political observer said that the tough fight put up by Patkar had led to a resurgence in the Congress camp in Curchorem.
“If the opposition parties continue to be the watchdog forces in Curchorem, as they have vowed to be, BJP’s free run will be under check,” he said. “For BJP, some serious soul-searching will be in order.”
The party’s vote share has also declined sharply since Cabral won from this constituency for the first time in 2012 in what was then a straight fight between him and Shyam Satardekar of Congress. Cabral’s vote share was then 72.2% . In the 2017 polls, when Cabral was once again pitted against Satardekar, who had then contested as the GSM-MGP-Shiv Sena alliance candidate, BJP’s vote share dropped sharply to 59.2%. The downward spiral for Cabral continued this time with BJP’s vote share shrinking further to 43.7 %.
The reasons for Cabral’s downturn, political observers say, is the emergence of new leadership in Curchorem’s political landscape, which also holds appeal for the younger generation.
“Also, voters who are disgusted with BJP found a credible and strong alternative in Congress’ Patkar, while those who are also ideologically opposed to Congress, threw their lot in favour of RG’s Aditya Raut Dessai,” a political observer said.
This was also the first time that Cabral faced a real challenger in the Congress candidate, as in the earlier two elections, Satardekar had proved to hardly be a match. With both Cabral and Satardekar having shared business interests in the past, Satardekar had failed to earn the trust of the voters, thereby losing to Cabral by huge margins.
When Cabral was first nominated by BJP in the 2012 assembly elections, the move had stemmed resentment among the RSS cadre. But the saffron party had quickly moved into damage control mode and succeeded in quelling the rebellion over his nomination. It was Manohar Parrikar who had then prevailed upon the RSS cadre to rally behind Cabral, which ensured his victory.
In the 2017 polls, as the ideological battle within the Sangh Parivar over the medium of instruction issue played out, Satardekar was fielded by the Goa Suraksha Manch (GSM). The rift in supporters of the saffron ideology had led to a large section of the RSS cadre throwing its weight behind Satardekar. But the battle turned out to be a cakewalk for Cabral.
This time, however, poll figures indicate a large-scale shift of traditional BJP votes to Congress, leading to a sharp decline in BJP’s vote share, and a huge upswing in that of Congress — from 12.8 % in 2017 to 40.8% now. “The disgruntled original BJP cadre expressed its resentment through the polls,” a political observer said. “BJP leadership realised the threat during the last leg of the campaign and succeeded in winning over a couple of rebel leaders a few days ahead of the polls. The effort somewhat helped in saving the party from what looked like imminent defeat.”
Besides, political observers decode the verdict as a negative vote for BJP by a large section of the electorate upset over issues like large-scale illegal sand mining in Curchorem and fears over the constituency being turned into a coal hub, fears fuelled largely by Railways’ double-tracking project and upgrading of mining jetties. Cabral’s stance, perceived as high-handedness, in dealing with issues of land acquisition for the railway expansion project, also alienated a section of land losers from BJP.
On the other hand, a political observer said that the tough fight put up by Patkar had led to a resurgence in the Congress camp in Curchorem.
“If the opposition parties continue to be the watchdog forces in Curchorem, as they have vowed to be, BJP’s free run will be under check,” he said. “For BJP, some serious soul-searching will be in order.”