Even as India has surpassed the UK in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) to become the fifth largest economy, an SBI report now says that the Indian economy is expected to become the third largest in the world by 2029, overtaking Germany and Japan as well. In that year, India will be seven notches higher as compared with its position in 2014, when the country was ranked 10th.
“India has undergone a large structural shift since 2014 and is now the 5th largest economy. Interestingly, India had surpassed the UK as the 5th largest economy as early as December 2021 itself and not recently as is being claimed. The share of India’s GDP is now at 3.5 per cent, as against 2.6 per cent in 2014 and is likely to cross 4 per cent in 2027, the current share of Germany in global GDP!,” according to the SBI Research report, authored by its Group Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh.
It added that the path taken by India since 2014 reveals the country is likely to get the tag of third largest economy by 2029, overtaking Germany and Japan.
“India’s GDP growth in Q1 FY23 was 13.5 per cent. At this rate, India is likely to be the fastest growing economy in the current fiscal. Interestingly, even as estimates of India’s GDP growth rate for FY23 currently range from 6.7 per cent to 7.7 per cent, we firmly believe that it is immaterial. In a world that is ravaged by uncertainties, we believe 6 per cent to 6.5 per cent growth is the new normal,” the SBI report said.
According to the latest official data, India’s GDP (gross domestic product) jumped 13.5 per cent in the June 2022 quarter (Q1FY23) as compared with the 20.1 per cent growth registered in Q1 2021-22. It is the fastest growth in a year, as the country’s GDP had grown at 4.1 per cent in the previous quarter (Q4FY22), 5.4 per cent in the December 2021 quarter of FY22, and 8.4 per cent in September 2021 quarter.
“Real GDP or gross domestic product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in Q1 2022-23 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 36.85 lakh crore, as against Rs 32.46 lakh crore in Q1 2021-22, showing a growth of 13.5 per cent as compared to 20.1 per cent in Q1 2021-22,” according to an official statement.
According to the latest data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), during April-June 2022, the country’s gross value added (GVA), which is GDP minus net product taxes and reflects growth in supply, grew 12.7 per cent.
According to Bloomberg on Friday, India has surpassed the UK to become the fifth-largest economy. The GDP figures from the International Monetary Fund show that India has leaped past the UK in the final three months of 2021 to become the fifth-biggest economy.
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