The global stockpiles of operational nuclear weapons are increasing once again, raising concerns among analysts at a leading think tank who warn that humanity is entering an extremely perilous phase. The number of warheads is estimated to be 12,512 worldwide, with 9,576 held in military arsenals ready for potential use. This marks an increase of 86 warheads compared to the previous year, putting an end to the period of gradual decline following the Cold War. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) reports that China possesses 60 of the new warheads, while Russia, Pakistan, North Korea, and India account for the remainder.
This rise in battle-ready warheads contradicts a statement made in 2021 by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council — the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France — that emphasizes the futility and undesirability of nuclear warfare. Russia and the US together hold nearly 90% of all nuclear weapons globally. Additionally, both countries have over 1,000 retired warheads awaiting dismantlement, which is an ongoing process.
Among the total 12,512 warheads worldwide, including those retired and awaiting dismantlement, Sipri estimates that 3,844 are deployed with missiles and aircraft. Approximately 2,000 of these warheads, primarily belonging to Russia and the US, are kept on high operational alert, meaning they are fitted to missiles or stored at airbases hosting nuclear bombers.
However, Sipri acknowledges that the complete picture is challenging to ascertain due to reduced transparency from several countries, including Russia, the US, and the UK, following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. It is believed that China, which houses the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal, increased its strength from 350 warheads in January 2022 to 410 in January 2023. While China’s stockpile is expected to continue growing, Sipri predicts that it will not surpass the arsenals of the US and Russia.
The report highlights that China has never officially declared the size of its nuclear arsenal, and assessments rely on data from the US Department of Defense. In 2021, satellite imagery revealed that China had begun constructing numerous missile silos across its northern territory.
Hans M Kristensen, an associate senior fellow with Sipri’s weapons of mass destruction program, notes that China is significantly expanding its nuclear arsenal, which contradicts its declared aim of maintaining the minimum nuclear forces necessary for national security.
According to The Guardian, France, with 290 warheads, and the UK, with 225 warheads, are the next largest nuclear powers. The UK’s operational arsenal is expected to grow further after an announcement two years ago that it was increasing its limit from 225 to 260 warheads. As many as 120 of UK’s 225 warheads are operationally available for delivery via Trident II D5 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Around 40 of these are carried on a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) which is on constant patrol.
In light of escalating global tensions, the UK government has decided not to publicly disclose the quantities of its nuclear weapons, deployed warheads, or deployed missiles.
The breakdown in cooperation regarding the future of nuclear weapons is evident through various developments. The US suspended its bilateral strategic stability dialogue with Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, and the Kremlin announced its suspension of participation in the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty that limits the strategic nuclear forces of the two Cold War adversaries.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government has increasingly emphasized the risk of nuclear war. President Putin declared that Russia’s nuclear deterrent was on high alert and warned of severe consequences for those opposing his country.
NATO’s provision of military aid to Ukraine has led to a constant stream of nuclear threats from