The Samajwadi Party clans are looking to reclaim their lost seats. The third phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha Polls, scheduled on May 7, would be a ‘testing phase’ for the three Yadav clans contesting this election, as the three prime constituencies including Mainpuri, Firozabad and Badaun, considered among the SP strongholds, will witness voting. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav’s wife Dimple Yadav is contesting from the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat and his cousins Akshay Yadav and Aditya Yadav are contesting from Firozabad and Badaun seats respectively. However, political analysts say the 2024 Lok Sabha battle is not going to be an easy game for the Yadav clans.
Other than these three high profile seats, the seats including Sambhal, Hathras, Agra, Fatehpur Sikri, Etah, Aonla and Bareilly will also go to polls in the third phase.
However, what makes the 2024 Lok Sabha Poll battle all the more important for SP is the fact that during 2019 Lok Sabha Polls, the party lost two out of these three seats to BJP and managed to retain only Mainpuri seat. This election, the million dollar question is whether the SP clans will manage to reclaim the lost seats.
Shashikant Pandey, political analyst and the HOD Department of Political Science, Dr Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow, said claiming the lost seats won’t be that easy for the Yadav clans in fray. “Whatever the result be but from SP moves, especially the way they changed their candidates at the last moment, the party’s confidence seems shaky this time,” said Pandey.
Pandey said that in 2014, the BJP, while riding on the Modi Wave, had clinched seven out of the 10 seats and expanded its tally to eight in 2019. Notable exceptions in their sweep included Sambhal and Mainpuri in 2019, and Mainpuri, Badaun, and Firozabad in 2014, all won by the Samajwadi Party. He said that in the third phase, Other Backward Classes (OBCs), prominently including Yadavs, Lodhas, and Kachhi/Shakya/Murao communities would be a deciding factor across various constituencies. Alongside, the enduring impact of Muslim and Jat demographics remains significant in select areas.
Badaun Lok Sabha Seat
Of the three seats, SP lost Badaun seat in 2019 Lok Sabha Polls to BJP candidate Sangmitra Maurya. This time, the SP has made Shivpal Yadav’s son Aditya Yadav its candidate from Badaun Lok Sabha Seat. This is Aditya Yadav’s first Lok Sabha election.
Bracketed among SP’s strongholds, the Badaun seat was first won by SP in 1996 and since then, had been the SP’s stronghold. However, in 2019, the scenario changed that as after a long gap, the BJP managed to win the seat. BJP’s Sanghamitra Maurya defeated SP’s Dharmendra Yadav, who was elected MP from here in the year 2009 and 2014. However, this time in 2024 Lok Sabha Polls, the SP has nominated Dharmendra from Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat while fielding Aditya Yadav from here.
Caste Dynamics in Badaun
In Badaun, Aditya Yadav is contesting against BJP’s Durvijay Singh Shakya and BSP’s Muslim Khan. In Badaun, there are said to be 4.2 lakh Yadav votes and 3.8 lakh Muslim votes. Apart from this, the number of Maurya voters on this seat is 2 lakh, the number of Dalit voters is 2.5 lakh, Rajpat voters are about 1.30 lakh, Vaishya voters are 1.40 lakh, Brahmin 1.60 lakh, Lodhi Rajput 75-thousand, Kashyap 55 thousand, Sahu and Pal voters are said to be fifty thousand each. If Muslim and Yadav voters go to SP, then it will be difficult for the BJP to register a second consecutive victory here.
Firozabad Lok Sabha Seat
This is another seat from where SP had to face defeat last time. On this seat, the SP has fielded Akshay Yadav as its candidate for 2024 Lok Sabha Polls for the third consecutive time. Akshay Yadav was successful in winning the election on this seat in the year 2014 but in the last election, he was defeated by BJP’s Dr Chandrasen Jadaun. In 2014, Akshay Yadav scored 5,34,583 votes defeating his arch-rival, BJP candidate Prof SP Singh Baghel. However in 2019, the SP candidate lost to BJP’s Dr Chandra Sen Jadon who secured 4,95,819 votes. This time, the BJP has nominated Thakur Vishwadeep Singh as its candidate from Firozabad Lok Sabha seat while Chaudhary Bashir is contesting on a BSP ticket.
Firozabad’s Caste Dynamics
The Firozabad Lok Sabha seat comprises 18.86 lakh voters. The largest bloc is Yadavs, totaling around 4 lakh, followed by approximately 2.5 lakh Muslim voters. Additionally, there are 2.5 to 3 lakh Lodhi and Nishad voters. Rajputs constitute over 1.5 lakh, while Vaishyas and Brahmins each number around 1 lakh. Beghals also contribute significantly to the electoral landscape. This diverse mix underscores the complex demographic makeup of Firozabad, reflecting varied political interests and potential voting patterns.
Mainpuri Lok Sabha Seat
This was perhaps one seat which the SP managed to retain in the last Lok Sabha Polls. Party founder late Mulayam Singh Yadav had won the last election here. Dimple had won the by-election held after his death. She is the current MP here and is fighting the 2024 election as well from Mainpuri.
Dimple Yadav had contested the Lok Sabha elections from Kannauj in 2019 but had to face defeat. The Mainpuri Lok Sabha Seat is said to be such fort of SP, where it is not easy for the opposition to win. Dimple Yadav is contesting against BJP’s Thakur Jaiveer Singh on Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat. Jaiveer Singh is the Tourism Minister in the Yogi Adityanath government in Uttar Pradesh and is an MLA from Mainpuri. Apart from this, the BSP has fielded Shiv Prasad Yadav on this seat.
Mainpuri’s Caste Dynamics
The number of Yadav voters in Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat is said to be around 4.25 lakh. After Yadavs, Shakya voters are also important here. The number of Shakya voters in Mainpuri is around 3.25 lakh. Apart from this, there are 1.10 lakh Brahmins, 1.20 lakh Dalits and about 1 lakh Lodhi voters in Mainpuri.
However, all three – Dimple Yadav, Aditya Yadav and Akshay Yadav – are leaving no stone unturned in wooing the voters in their respective constituencies. In the chaupals, the trio can be heard targeting BJP over the issues of unemployment, paper leaks, Agniveer Scheme, mismanagement during Covid phase, distribution of ‘Bajra’ (which is a winter grain) at the ration shops and others.
Check Lok Sabha Election 2024 Phase 3 Schedule, Key Candidates And Constituencies At News18 Website.