Is the Nationalist Congress Party trying to negotiate for the chief ministerial position in the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance? Will Ajit Pawar jump ship without the consent of his uncle and Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar? Is Uddhav Thackeray confident of the sympathy wave helping him sail through the coming elections? Is the pressure on the leaders of opposition parties so high that they are seriously in the mood to consider supporting the BJP? Will the BJP have to fall in line with caste politics and calculations in Maharashtra?
These are among the myriad speculations alluding to a storm in Maharashtra politics, and they refuse to die down. Buzz is rife about whether there will a change at the helm and of NCP leader Ajit Pawar switching sides.
All the theories are further fueled by BJP’s recent claim that Uddhav Thackeray is seeking backchannel talks with the saffron party to return as its original alliance partner. And Sharad Pawar has batted for a united MVA, trying to draw curtains on the controversy over his recent remarks over the fate of the alliance. But, the uncertainty over several issues continues.
Karnataka elections are also being keenly watched by all the political players in the State.
Ajit Pawar, a four-time Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra, has officially denied all these speculations.
“I will be in the NCP till my last breath,” he said. But speculations about his move continue even after his denial, with many asking if this is a temporary comma and not a full stop. Sources close to Sharad Pawar have maintained that his nephew does not have sufficient numbers.
Whether any parties will openly become allies with the BJP, or whether they fear a massive backlash due to public perception, just the way Eknath Shinde’s legislators are facing, is also being mulled over presently. Maharashtra stands on crossroads with several fluid discussions on the direction which major opposition parties are likely to take.
Here are the factors in consideration for the parties involved in the power play in Maharashtra at present:
Personal aspiration
“Dada is capable of becoming the Chief Minister. But will the MVA offer him the opportunity? Then what is there in the alliance for him? He has a strong grip over administration. He has good experience as a legislator. He has worked as the Deputy Chief Minister of the State. His experience and his aspirations have to be respected,” an NCP leader told CNN-News18 on condition of anonymity, adding that efforts were on to convince Sharad Pawar.
The leader further said that ‘Dada’ was ‘wary’ of the fiasco he faced last time, (when Ajit Pawar was sworn in as the Deputy Chief Minister with Devendra Fadnavis in 2019, in one the shortest governments seen by Maharashtra. It had lasted 80 hours.)
“This time, he wants to be sure of the steps he takes. He does not want to take any steps against Saaheb,” the leader said. Other party leaders corroborated that there was churning within the NCP. “When the crackdown by the central agencies began, for three months I did not know where my family members were,” a senior leader said.
The NCP, a regional Maratha party of local chieftains held together by Sharad Pawar, is known to have made several adjustments to be in power. “The party grows, flourishes when it is in power. Currently, several leaders are of the opinion that the pressure of the central agencies is difficult to withstand. Being in opposition and facing the pressure is a double whammy,” explained another leader.
Top sources within the party said Ajit Pawar does not have the majority support. But sources close to Ajit Pawar claimed that the leader had the tacit support of over 40 MLAs. “No paperwork has been done. There is no point in it. Jayant Patil is the Leader of the Legislative Party,” pointed out an MLA.
“It isn’t just about pressure on our leaders. Our work is not getting done. When we were in power, we were getting funds for constituency work. Now, our leaders have promised work in their constituency. But where are the funds? They have dried up. How will politics be done like this?” said an MLA.
Backlash?
The biggest factor which is pulling NCP back is the fear of public backlash, said sources. “That fear is real. We are seeing it about the Eknath Shinde camp. Everyone wants to continue their political career. What is the point if any step leads to that backlash? That is the assessment that Saaheb will have to take a call on,” he said.
Chaagan Bhujbal, Eknath Khadse, Anil Deshmukh have all faced probe of central agencies. Praful Patel, a leader close to Sharad Pawar, was also under the scanner.
The buzz in the media about a possible switch can be a strategy to prepare public perception about it, highly placed sources said. “Shocks are not taken kindly by the people. Even the last time when Ajit Pawar formed a government with Devendra Fadnavis, it was a shock to the people. Hence the backlash. That one step has done tremendous damage to his image till date. The reason for these statements in the media and the buzz around it, is the likely use of the media to let this thought out among the people. So in case any such step is taken by the party, it does not come as a shock,” an MLA said, adding it was their ‘guess’.
“Saaheb is of the opinion that there is public sentiment against the BJP. And it is important to stay together with the MVA to get a grip over the State. The message from him is; it is important to withstand the pressure. He has made it clear that MVA should work together. That is his stated stance,” a leader said.
Sharad Pawar was quoted by Sanjay Raut in his column recently, saying that he had told his party leaders that NCP will not switch sides and that individual leaders were free to take their own decisions.
Shahu-Phule-Ambedkar
Sharad Pawar has taken a public stance against the BJP recently. NCP leaders said the party that claims to be carrying the ideology of Shahu-Phule-Ambedkar will find it difficult to openly embrace the BJP. But like the Shiv Sena, NCP has also played the politics of opportunism in Maharashtra, barely sticking to a political ideology.
Moreover, there are no political parties left ‘untouched’ in their ideologies in the State anymore. Maharashtra had seen a watertight division of sides till a few years ago – Congress and NCP on one side and the BJP and Shiv Sena on the other. But the BJP has co-opted several leaders from other parties till now, including from the Congress. Meanwhile, the Shiv Sena joined hands with the Congress and the NCP, changing the political equations of the State forever.
BJP googly
Recently, within an hour after Uddhav Thackeray held a massive public rally at Pachora in Jalgaon, targeting PM Narendra Modi, a BJP leader tweeted that Thackeray himself was seeking backchannel talks with the saffron party to get back into an alliance with it.
“Uddhav Thackeray publicly insinuates the BJP on one hand, and tries to contact the BJP on the sly to enter into an alliance with the party on the other. Has Uddhav ji not contacted the BJP in the last nine months? Someone should ask Uddhavji. If I am lying, Uddhavji should speak about this,” Mohit Kamboj said in a post on the microblogging website Twitter.
The tweet garnered over 40,000 views, but did not elicit any response from Shiv Sena.
The BJP is fully aware that if the three parties of MVA stick together, it would not bode well for the party in the upcoming elections. The local body elections including the BMC elections are pending. Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections will be held in the coming year. Several smaller elections in the recent past have shown that the BJP’s show has been anything but impressive. As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are around the corner, the effort will be to garner as many seats from the second biggest State.
Maharashtra has 48 Lok Sabha seats.
As speculations about the direction of Maharashtra politics continue, several leaders said that changes were in the offing, but that it was just a matter of time. “Whatever be the condition, one thing is sure – Ajit Pawar will not defect from the party. Either the whole party goes with him, or the whole party stays where it is. The question is, what will the party decide?” said one leader.
And therein lies the answer to several questions which may play a role in defining the picture for 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
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