Will AAP Get By With a Little Help from Gujarat? How Kejriwal’s Party Can Go National by 2024 | Explained

The Aam Aadmi Party has left no stone unturned in its fiery election campaign in Gujarat, aimed at launching itself as a national party by the next Lok Sabha polls in 2024. While Gujarat may play a crucial role in national convener Arvind Kejriwal’s pan-India ambitions, the party is no stranger to fighting even the toughest fight.

After its launch in 2012, the AAP contested the 2014 Lok Sabha elections with over 400 candidates across India. That was also the time when Kejriwal contested against then Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi from Varanasi and lost by more than three lakh votes. But even after Kejriwal having led the anti-corruption movement from the front, the results were not in the party’s favour. It only managed to win four seats, all from Punjab.

In contrast, in the 2019 general elections, the AAP was more focused and contested from close to 40 seats across nine states and union territories. But once again, it managed to win just one seat and, that too, from Punjab.

Ahead of the first phase polling in Gujarat, Kejriwal had said it was important to work hard and try, even if a win was not on the horizon. Hence, the AAP has also contested assembly elections across India since its formation – Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and now Gujarat – after tasting immense success in the national capital. After a whirlwind campaign in 2017 that turned out to be a damp squib, the AAP registered a landslide win in Punjab earlier this year and formed a government.

Here’s how contesting elections in BJP-ruled Gujarat can help the AAP become a national-level party.

What are the types of political parties in India?

India is a vast democracy and any association or body of Indian citizens can float a political party. A party needs to be registered with the Election Commission of India (ECI).

According to the ECI, political parties are either ‘recognised’ or ‘unrecognised’. A recognised party can either be a national party or a state party, depending upon election results. The tag of national or state parties is not permanent and can be altered if certain criteria are not met.

How many political parties are there in India?

There are eight national parties, 54 regional parties and as many as 2,796 registered ‘unrecognised’ political parties in India, as per ECI data up to September 2021.

The eight national parties are – Bharatiya Janata Party; Indian National Congress; Bahujan Samaj Party; Nationalist Congress Party; Communist Party of India; Communist Party of India (Marxist); All India Trinamool Congress; and National People’s Party (NPP).

The NPP is the newest national party in India that earned its tag in June 2019.

Journey to become national starts with ECI registration

A registered political party, in the course of time, can get recognition as a state party or national party, subject to conditions prescribed by the ECI in the Election Symbols (Reservation and Allotment) Order, 1968.

When a political party is registered, candidates fielded by that party get preference in the matter of allotment of free symbols as compared to purely independent candidates.

If a party is recognised as a state party, it is entitled for exclusive allotment of its reserved symbol to its candidates in the state/states. If a party is recognised as a national party, it is entitled for exclusive allotment of its reserved symbol to its candidates across India.

Recognised state and national parties need only one proposer for filing nominations and are also entitled to two sets of electoral rolls, free of cost, and broadcast facilities over Akashvani or Doordarshan during general elections.

How can a party become a national party?

There are a number of rules that can make a party a state party and, eventually, a national party. One of the simplest rules for a political party to be treated as a national party is to be recognised as a political party in four or more states. If a party is treated as a recognised political party in less than four states, it is a “state party”.

Apart from getting recognition as a state party in four states, political parties can also become national parties if they get 6 percent vote share each in any four states in the previous assembly polls along with four seats in the previous Lok Sabha elections; or it gets 2 percent of all Lok Sabha seats in the last general election with MPs elected from at least three states.

The easiest rule that can make AAP a national party is that it becomes a state party in four states.

What is the AAP’s status?

At present, the AAP is the ruling party in Delhi and Punjab and has bagged two seats in Goa assembly elections along with 6.8 percent of the total votes. In August, the ECI announced that the AAP was a recognised party in Goa as well.

After the ECI’s announcement, Kejriwal tweeted: “After Del n Punjab, AAP is now a state recognised party in Goa too. If we get recognised in one more state, we will officially be declared as a “national party”.”

Why is Gujarat crucial?

To get the status of a national party, the AAP needs to be recognised as a state party in one more state and Gujarat can give it that. The AAP has put a lot of time and energy in Gujarat and is hopeful of its victory. Getting a majority in Gujarat can be tough as the BJP has ruled uninterrupted for close to three decades.

Also, the states where the AAP had formed governments earlier – Delhi and Punjab – it had defeated the Congress.

Even if the AAP fails to form a government in Gujarat, however, it will not be a total loss. If it manages to get the state party tag in Gujarat, it can become a national party.

Also, apart from BJP and Congress, the AAP is the only political party ruling in more than one state. These factors can give a push to Kejriwal’s national ambition and an upper hand to the decade-old party ahead of 2024.

AAP’s journey so far

The party was formed by Kejriwal along with others in 2012. The next year, it managed to make its debut in electoral politics as it won 28 out of 70 seats in the Delhi assembly. Kejriwal became chief minister on support from the Congress but he resigned within weeks. Delhi went to polls again in 2015 and the AAP recorded a landslide victory, winning 67 out of 70 seats with a record vote share of 54 percent. In 2020, the AAP was re-elected as it won 62 out of 70 seats.

Outside Delhi, while the AAP has contested assembly polls in several states, it was able to form a government only in Punjab. In the 2017 assembly polls, it turned out to be the main opposition party, winning 20 seats. Cut to 2022, it won 92 seats in the 117-member legislative assembly.

AAP’s performance in assembly polls

The AAP had tried its luck in the 2017 Gujarat polls, but failed badly. It was a similar story in Goa in 2017.

Apart from these two states, the AAP also contested elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Karnataka (2018); and Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Odisha (2019), but it did not bag a single seat.

Earlier this year, the AAP aggressively contested Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh assembly polls but failed to have an impact. The party also pushed for Himachal Pradesh but towards the end of the battle, moved its focus to Gujarat.

The results for Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh assembly polls will be announced on December 8 – the date that may also decide AAP’s fate as a national party.

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