With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raging for three weeks, there are lots of questions that the world is asking. Perhaps the most crucial of them is: when and how will the war end?
Theoretically, any war ends when the problems that led to the war are resolved on the battlefield—when there is a decisive victory. But this rarely happens, and we have examples of Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya and many more countries.
War is actually the continuation of policy with other means, as famous strategist Carl von Clausewitz said. War often ends with less than a perfect military solution for both sides, allowing talks, politics, and diplomacy to reemerge.
So, before trying to answer the question as to when and how the Russia-Ukraine war will end, let’s first address what led to it and what has happened so far.
RUSSIA’S REASONS FOR INVASION
Russia launched its invasion on February 24 to “stop genocides” in Ukraine by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s regime backed externally by the US-dominated military alliance Nato (North Atlantic Treaty Organization).
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin wanted that Ukraine show neutrality with regard to his tussle with Nato that has expanded in eastern Europe by making many erstwhile Soviet constituents its member. Follow Ukraine-Russia war LIVE Updates
Another demand was that Ukraine shouldn’t become a Nato member.
Russia wanted Ukraine to acknowledge Crimea (that Putin annexed in 2014 in response to Ukrainians ousting their pro-Russian president through mass protests) as Russian territory, and recognise Donetsk and Lugansk, controlled by Putin-backed rebels, as independent states.
WHAT HAS HAPPENED SO FAR
– About 3 million people have fled Ukraine and taken refuge in other countries. Over 1.8 million have reached neighbouring Poland. Hundreds have been killed on both sides.
– In Ukrainian capital Kyiv, around half of the 3.4 million residents have fled and some are holed up in metro stations and bomb shelters.
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– Kharkiv, Mariupol, Sumy, Chernihiv and many others are also besieged.
– Russia says it now has administrative control of the Kherson region in southern Ukraine.
– The West has poured military and humanitarian aid for Zelenskyy to take on Russia’s clearly superior military but so far avoided a direct conflict, primarily because Ukraine is not a Nato member. The West’s sanctions on Russia are piling.
– Zelenskyy has conceded that Ukraine does not want to be a Nato member. Russia had demanded such a guarantee before invading Ukraine. Zelenskyy has also said he is open to “discussing and compromising” on the status of Donetsk and Luhansk.
FINALLY, WHEN AND HOW WILL THE WAR END?
As we can see, Ukraine is showing a willingness to consider some of the key Russian demands. Ukrainian officials, in fact, hope the war could end by May, saying Russia may be realising that it is running out of military wherewithal and cannot install a puppet government by force.
Russia has also said some formulations for agreements with Ukraine were agreed upon, with neutral status for Kyiv under “serious” consideration.
Zelenskyy has said peace talks were sounding more realistic, but more time was needed for the outcome to be in Ukraine’s interest. But Russia maintains that critical issues for Russia include the “security of people in eastern Ukraine” and Ukraine’s “demilitarisation”.
Given the current situation, here are the following possible scenarios in which the war may end.
SCENARIO 1: Putin bombs Ukraine into submission at a massive human cost, seen in Syria and Chechnya, and installs a puppet government in Kyiv or annexes his Soviet-era constituent as part of Greater Russia as Nato continues to avoid direct conflict because Ukraine is not part of the military alliance.
SCENARIO 2: Zelenskyy is forced to quit; the new Ukrainian government is agreeable to Russia.
SCENARIO 3: Kyiv is made neutral, irrespective of who rules Ukraine. Or, Ukraine is demilitarised like Austria.
SCENARIO 4: Putin is forced to halt his military operation, with altered status quo, allowing talks and diplomacy to take effect. Russia’s vaunted military has been seen faltering in its invasion plan as the Ukrainians try to valiantly hold off Putin’s forces.
SCENARIO 5: Ukraine is forced to recognise the two breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as well as Kherson as independent.
SCENARIO 6: Angered by the slowness of his offensive in Ukraine, Russia uses chemical weapons or targets the West’s arms depots in neighbouring Poland, prompting Nato to get involved directly. This leads to a protracted Russia versus West war. Incidentally, on Sunday, Russian missiles landed in Ukraine’s largely unaffected western region, not far from the Polish border. Putin has said convoys carrying weapons from the West are “legitimate targets” even when it’s Nato territory.
SCENARIO 7: Putin scales back his goals in the face of a crumbling domestic economy, and Ukraine becomes what Afghanistan was to Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev or the US and its allies after 2001.
SCENARIO 8: Ukraine registers an unlikely, heroic victory with continued weapon and humanitarian aid supplies from the West.
SCENARIO 9: Sanctions break Russia’s economy, and Putin becomes extremely unpopular, leading to an uprising in his country centered around an opposition leader like Alexey Navalny or even a palace coup from within the elite.
SCENARIO 10: Cornered by Nato and the European Union, and running out of military wherewithal, a frustrated Putin does go for nuclear strikes with tactical or low-yield warheads, potentially leading to World War III and widespread catastrophe.
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