For Dimple Yadav, Thursday’s early trends must have brought much-needed relief. The ‘badi bahu’ of Mulayam Singh Yadav had the herculean task of shouldering her father-in-law’s 26-year-old legacy on home turf Mainpuri for which by-elections were held on December 8 and votes are being counted on Thursday.
The bypoll in Mainpuri was necessitated after the death of the Samajwadi Party (SP) patriarch in October. Early trends show that Dimple Yadav is leading by 44,000 votes against former MP Raghuraj Singh Shakya of the BJP.
The bypoll has marked the return of Dimple Yadav — wife of SP chief Akhilesh Yadav — to the political arena after three years. Dimple Yadav, who represented the Kannauj Lok Sabha seat as an MP from 2012 to 2019, had not contested the last Lok Sabha elections in 2019 as Akhilesh Yadav said he did not want to promote any parivaarvaad in his party. Dimple’s name had also done the rounds as a candidate from the Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat earlier this year after Akhilesh Yadav vacated the seat and retained his assembly seat of Karhal. Akhilesh Yadav’s cousin, Dharmendra Yadav however contested from Azamgarh and suffered a shock defeat.
The easiest deduction from Akhilesh’s game plan to secure the Mainpuri turf is that Dimple’s candidature will bring in sympathy votes for the SP in light of the patriarch’s death. Dimple is also Akhilesh’s best choice against Shivpal Yadav, his estranged uncle, since he would not find it easy to contest from Mainpuri against Mulayam’s ‘bahu’.
The caste equation in Mainpuri also favours Dimple’s nomination. Known for the classic Muslim-Yadav combination, in Mainpuri, the Shakya community and Thakur votes are also key. To cash in on the base, the SP recently appointed Alok Shakya the new Mainpuri district president. Given that Dimple was a Thakur by caste before marriage, the party seems to have kept all stakeholders in mind before planning its strategy.
The BJP had narrowed down the victory margin on Mulayam Singh Yadav in Mainpuri in 2019 to only 94,000 votes after he had won the seat in 2014 by a whopping 3.64 lakh votes.
The Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat has around 17.3 lakh voters of which about 40 per cent are from the Yadav community, while 29 per cent consist of Rajputs, Chauhans, Bhadaurias and other upper castes. Muslims and Dalits constitute the remaining 30 per cent population.
It was Mainpuri from where Mulayam Singh Yadav was first elected an MP in 1996. He successfully contested from the seat three more times—2004, 2009 and 2019. In the 2014 bypoll, the seat was won by Tej Pratap.
While it is a prestige battle for the Samajwadi Party, for Akhilesh’s estranged uncle Shivpal, victory on the seat would be a stamp of approval to be Netaji’s political heir. Before Mulayam’s death, Shivpal had announced that he would contest from the seat if his brother did not enter the poll fray. Many believe that if Shivpal wins, he will gain entry into national politics and establish his son Aditya Yadav in state politics. Aditya was recently made the state president of Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party Lohia (PSPL), the political outfit founded by Shivpal.
Interestingly, Shivpal Yadav is an MLA from Jaswant Nagar assembly seat which is a part of Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat while Akhilesh Yadav is MLA from Karhal which is also a part of the Mainpuri parliamentary seat. Mainpuri’s like Kishni assembly seat is held by SP’s Barjesh Katheria, while two assembly seats — Bhogaon and Mainpuri Sadar — are held by BJP’s Ram Naresh Agnihotri and Jaiveer Singh. The heady mix promises to make the Mainpuri battle more interesting.
While Dimple Yadav has given a breather to SP, in Rampur — the party’s long-held seat — SP candidate Asim Raza is leading by 3,800 votes against BJP’s Akash Saxena.
Saxena is the main complainant in the hate speech case against Azam Khan. He had contested against Khan in the 2022 assembly elections but lost by a margin of over 55,000 votes. A known critic of the Khan family, Saxena had complained against Azam’s son Abdullah.
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