Russia’s invasion into Ukraine has entered the second month after operations were launched on February 24, but Kyiv has still not fallen. The challenges of urban warfare and a counter-offensive from Ukraine have meant that Russia’s advancement has been slow.
With the Ukrainian forces putting up resistance and Russia unable to take control of Kyiv physically, the situation is getting into a stalemate mode.
“Ongoing Ukrainian counter-attacks around Kyiv will likely disrupt the ongoing Russian efforts to reconstitute forces and resume major offensive operations to encircle Kyiv,” Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think-tank, said in its assessment of developments on March 28.
Fred Kagan, Director of Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, on March 22 wrote for ISW stating how the stalemate could lead to the war lingering on.
“The Russians might still win; the Ukrainians might win; the war might expand to involve other countries; or it might turn into a larger-scale version of the stalemate in Ukraine’s east that had persisted from 2014 to the start of Russia’s invasion in February 2022. The failure of Russia’s initial military campaign nevertheless marks an important inflection that has implications for the development and execution of Western military, economic, and political strategies,” he wrote.
According to ISW, “Russian conscription efforts, which Ukrainian intelligence expects to begin on April 1, are unlikely to provide Russian forces around Ukraine with sufficient combat power to restart major offensive operations in the near term. Russia’s pool of available well-trained replacements remains low and new conscripts will require months to reach even a minimum standard of readiness.”
What’s making the Russian advance towards Kyiv slow?
The stiff resistance and Russia’s apprehension of sending ground troops to fight in urban guerilla warfare could lead to heavy causalities. The fear of Ukrainian snipers atop buildings targeting blinded Russian troops is perhaps what has held them back.
It’s for this reason Russia has been focusing on encircling Kyiv and cutting off its forces, but that too hasn’t happened. Irpin, a town on the outskirts of Kyiv that was in Russian control, has also been reclaimed by Ukraine.
But some experts also believe there wasn’t the intention to capture Kyiv completely. “The infantry required to capture a city was less. The kind of deployment in terms of ground troops was not enough for such a theatre,” said Lt Gen Rakesh Sharma (retd), himself an infantry officer who commanded the Leh 14 Corps of the Indian Army.
He says cities like Kherson and Mariupol were important to the Russians and they were relentless when it comes to controlling these. “Kherson was important as it supplies water to Crimea and was stopped by Ukraine, Mariupol being close to Donbass is significant,” he said.
There has been an intense firefight in the port town of Mariupol where Russian forces have consolidated and taken territory. Mariupol, in the south-east of Ukraine, is a gateway to the Donbass region from the southern side of Ukraine comprising Donetsk and Luhansk.
Controlling Mariupol gives Russian ground forces a link-up corridor to the east, giving connectivity to Donetsk and Luhansk close to the Russian border, recognised as independent states by Moscow.
Russia’s attempts to control the Black Sea have also not fructified. Moving towards Odessa, a port town, Russia wanted to take control of the Black Sea coast and, if required, also make further advancements to the west of Ukraine that’s been peaceful till now.
By occupying Odessa, Russian forces would be in complete control of South and East Ukraine with unhindered connectivity from Odessa to the Donbass region.
Holding on to the coastline of the Black Sea would cut off Ukraine completely from the sea. From Crimea to Odessa, the entire coast of the Black Sea could be in Russian hands, but that’s not happened yet. Access to the Black Sea is not just a security concern for Ukraine, but is also vital for trade through the seas.
It’s not just the east-west connectivity, but dominating south Ukraine would also give Russian forces a chance to advance to central Ukraine in an attempt to encircle Kyiv.
On March 3, with the fall of Kherson, it was expected that soon Russian forces will take control of Odessa but that hasn’t happened.
Russian forces moved in from different directions: north, south, and east of Ukraine, attempting multiple assaults on Kyiv and allowing a link-up for its troops. Not only has the advancement of ground forces been slow, but they have also had to fight pitched battles in towns like Kharkiv and Sumi.