The Election Commission’s (EC) order in favour of Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has certainly boosted the confidence of his supporters, Members of Legislative Assembly (MLA) and Members of Parliament (MP) who parted ways with Uddhav Thackeray.
Getting a party name and symbol was important for them. Shinde was aware of the fact that without the party name, ‘Shiv Sena’, and symbol, bow and arrow, fighting the electoral battle ahead would be tough.
The Election Commission’s order has made their journey smoother, but not entirely.
Several challenges remain, of which one is to re-establish themselves in the minds of people and get the old Shiv Sena supporters back.
‘KHOKE SARKAR’
The Thackeray faction’s campaign of ‘Khoke Sarkar’ (government which has taken crores of rupees) and ‘Gaddar Sarkar’ (Traitor Government) have dented the image of Shinde and his MLAs. Cleaning that image and proving that his ‘Shiv Sena’ is the only Shiv Sena taking the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray ahead is a task for Shinde.
To accomplish it, Shinde will look to use big-ticket infrastructure projects such as the Samruddhi Mega Highway connecting Vidarbha to Shirdi, which was recently inaugurated by PM Modi, opening of two short-distance Metro lines in suburban areas of Mumbai, expediting work of Mumbai-Trans Harbour Line (MTHL), which will connect Mumbai to Navi Mumbai and will reduce the distance by almost one hour.
With the help of the Centre, Shinde has brought in funds to redevelop and modernize the Nagpur railway station to attract the traditional and urban voters of the Shiv Sena.
BMC POLLS & SHAKHAS
After winning the party name and symbol, Shinde’s next target is the upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) or Mumbai civic body elections. For the past two decades, the Shiv Sena has been in power in the BMC, but post the split in the party, Shinde has an increased responsibility to retain the fort. For this task, he is getting help from the BJP, which got fewer seats than the Sena in the last election.
In Mumbai, the challenge for Shinde is much bigger as while Shiv Sena MLAs namely Yamini Jadhav, Prakash Surve, Dilip Lande and a few MPs are with him, grass-roots Shiv Sena workers are still with Thackeray.
It was visible during the last annual Dussehra rally of Shiv Sena where Thackeray’s event at Shivaji Park got a tremendous response, while the crowds were seen leaving the MMRDA grounds when Shinde was making his speech.
The Shiv Sena’s real strength in urban areas is their shakhas (ward-level party office). Citizens come there with their problems, which usually get solved with the help of local party workers. This is how the Shiv Sena keeps its vote bank intact. This model was started by Bal Thackeray during the initial days of Shiv Sena with the same motive.
Despite the party name, Shinde won’t be able to acquire all Shiv Sena Shakhas as they are in the name of the ‘Shivai Trust’, in which Shiv Sena leaders, including Uddhav Thackeray, are members. To counter that, Shinde has now started to open ward-level offices in Mumbai and its suburban areas. But it will take more time for them to penetrate the local areas. As is visible on the ground, the sympathy of common voters is with the Thackeray faction.
LOK SABHA CHALLENGE
After Shinde parted ways with Thackeray, the common perception was that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Devendra Fadnavis would become the Chief Minister and Shinde would be his Deputy, but the BJP helped Shinde become the CM of Maharashta to send out a message.
It was the dream of Bal Thackeray to see an ordinary worker again leading the Maharashtra government. By doing this, the BJP also settled the score with Uddhav Thackeray, who snapped ties with the BJP in 2019 and went on to become the CM with the support of the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
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For the BJP, winning maximum Lok Sabha (LS) seats from Maharashtra in 2024, along with Uttar Pradesh, is the single-point agenda. Political analysts in Delhi and Maharashtra say the BJP is yet to get that confidence from Shinde. The main reason being Shinde is not a mass leader and, other than Thane district, he has no great support. To win maximum seats in Maharashtra, the BJP needs a strong face like Thackeray, although they don’t have him as of now. However, whether the Shiv Sena name and symbol will work in the favour of BJP in the LS polls remains to be seen.
In such a scenario, despite being at the centre of power in the state and having the banner of Balasaheb Thackeray’s Shiv Sena behind him, the road ahead for Shinde will not be that smooth.
After all, winning the legal battle in the court may have boosted the confidence of Shinde, but the real battle will play out in people’s court. To win it, Shinde and his team need to tackle hurdles, relentlessly and fiercely.
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