In a stunning upset, the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is projected to oust the Congress in Punjab in Assembly elections 2022 to win its second state within 10 years of being formed. The party, which is currently in power in Delhi, has been projected to win 75-plus seats in the 117-member Punjab Assembly, as per exit polls 2022.
The Axis My India survey has projected 76-90 seats for the AAP in Punjab, taking it beyond the majority mark of 59 seats. The Jan Ki Baat poll has predicted 60-84 seats for the Aam Aadmi Party, while the P-Marq survey said the party is tipped to land between 62 and 70 seats. As per the ETG Research, AAP could win 70-75 seats, and the Polstrat pegged the party beyond the magic number but lower at 56-61 seats.
The Congress, meanwhile, has been projected to lose Punjab with just around 30 seats in the Assembly. The SAD-BSP alliance is predicted to manage double digit seat count limited below 25. The BJP and allies have been projected to win single-digit tallies. The counting of votes for Punjab elections 2022 will be held on March 10, 2022.
Punjab had recorded an overall voter turnout of approximately 70% in the single-phase, multi-cornered contest for the 117-member Assembly. A total of 1,304 candidates, including two transgender persons were in the fray this time.
The main contest was among the ruling Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which contested the polls in alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party after breaking two-decade old ties with the BJP in 2020 over the farm laws. The BJP-Punjab Lok Congress (PLC) alliance was also in the fray, besides the Sanyukt Samaj Morcha, comprising Punjab farmer bodies that had taken part in the agitation against the Centre’s now repealed agricultural laws.
The Congress portrayed incumbent Charanjit Singh Channi as the chief ministerial candidate despite protracted lobbying by Punjab unit chief Navjot Singh Sidhu. Comedian-turned-politician Bhagwant Mann was the AAP CM face, while the Akali Dal stuck with Sukhbir Singh Badal.
Apart from the year-long farmers’ protest against now-repealed agri-marketing laws, the issues of sacrilege and drugs smuggling dominated the election narrative. The BJP made the unprecedented breach of the Prime Minister’s security part of its campaign pitch on security in the border state.
In the 2017 Assembly elections, the Congress had won an absolute majority by winning 77 seats in the 117-member Assembly, ousting the SAD-BJP government after 10 years.
The AAP had emerged as the second-largest party, winning 20 seats. Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) won 15 seats, while the BJP, which had a coalition government with the Akali Dal in Punjab from 2007 to 2017, secured three seats.
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