NOTA Factor, Vote Margins & Ranking: As BJP’s Gujarat Gameplan Ticks the Right Boxes, Decoding Number Game

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) not only clinched a historic victory in Gujarat, winning 156 seats in the 182-member state assembly, but also broke some more records in grabbing the lion’s share with big margins. In two seats, Ghatlodia and Choryasi, the winning margin was close to two lakh. Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel, who won for a second straight term from Ghatlodia, beat his nearest rival by 1.92 lakh votes. In eight seats, the victory margin for BJP candidates ranged between 1 lakh and 1.5 lakh. These included Vatva, Olpad, Surat West, Manjalpur, Majura, Ellisbridge, Rajkot West and Valsad.

There were at least 15 seats where the victory margin was between 70,000 and 1 lakh. These included Maninagar, Kamrej, Pardi, Naroda, Naranpura, Bhavnagar Rural, Raopura, Gandevi, Bardoli, Akota, Daskroi, Navsari, Sabarmati, Sayajigunj and Vadodara city.

As the BJP celebrates its success, News18 takes a look at the Gujarat election in numbers:

• In 102 of the 156 seats (65 per cent) won, BJP has a vote share of more than 50 per cent.

• AAP had a vote share of more than 50 per cent in one seat: Dediyapada

• Congress secured more than 50 per cent of the votes polled in two seats: Patan and Vansda

• In three seats, winners — all from BJP — had a vote share of more than 80 per cent: Ghatlodia, Ellisbridge, and Majura

• Winner with the highest percentage of votes: Bhupendrabhai Rajnikant Patel (BJP) from Ghatlodia (82.95 per cent)

• Highest margin of victory: Bhupendrabhai Rajnikant Patel (BJP) from Ghatlodia defeated nearest rival Dr Amee Yajnik (INC) by a margin of 1,92,263 votes (74.69 per cent of the votes polled);

• Narrowest margin of victory: Virendrasinh Bahadursinh Jadeja (BJP) over Bhachubhai Dharamshi Aarethiya (INC) in Rapar constituency (577 votes)

• Seats with victory margins above 1 lakh: 11, all won by BJP

• Seats with victory margins below 1,000: Two (BJP 1, INC 1)

• Danilimda in Ahmedabad is the only assembly segment among all the 182 seats in Gujarat where Congress has been getting the most number of votes in the last five elections: 2022, 2017 and 2012 along with 2019 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

• Congress candidates who lost their deposit (secured less than 1/6th or 16.66% votes): 41/179 (22.9 per cent)

• AAP candidates who lost their deposit (secured less than 1/6th or 16.66% of votes): 126/181 (69.6 per cent)

• BJP candidates who lost their deposit (secured less than 1/6th or 16.66% of votes): 0/182 (0 per cent)

• AAP came second in 35 seats

• AAP won five seats in 2022. Two of those seats were won by BJP in 2017, two by INC and one by BTP

• In 39 of the seats in which INC lost, AAP got more votes than the margin of victory (AAP+INC votes more than the winner’s)

• Over 50 per cent of the votes secured by AAP are from 38 (21 per cent) of the 181 seats contested by the party

• In 15 constituencies, NOTA got more votes than AAP: Abdasa, Rapar, Vav, Tharad, Dhanera, Radhanpur, Kheralu, Kalol, Khambhat, Borsad, Anklav, Matar, Padra, Vagra, Surat East

• In seven constituencies, NOTA got the third-highest number of votes: Rapar, Tharad, Radhanpur, Kalol, Borsad, Anklav, Vagra

• Highest NOTA votes: In Khedbrahma, 7,331 voters (3.56 per cent) chose NOTA

• Lowest NOTA votes: In Karanj, only 756 voters (0.85 per cent) chose NOTA. Percentage wise lowest is Limbayat where 0.6 per cent voters (1,069) chose NOTA

• AIMIM secured more votes than the margin of victory in one seat Jamalpur-Khadia. However, that seat was won by Imran Khedawala of INC.

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