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- IMD Rainfall Forecast Update; Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh Gujarat
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Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has released the monsoon forecast for 2022. According to this, monsoon is likely to be normal this year. That is, this time there will be 98% rain during the 4 months of rain. Normally, India receives 880.6 mm of rainfall between June and September, i.e. in 2022 it may be 98% of the same amount.
Skymet has also kept a margin of 5% increase or decrease in this estimate. Rainfall of 96%-104% is said to be normal.
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States where there is less chance of rain
The agency has said in its forecast that there may be more rain than normal in MP-UP and Punjab, Haryana, popularly known as the Food Bowl. Whereas in Gujarat there will be less rain than normal. Along with Rajasthan and Gujarat, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura in the Northeast region will see less rain throughout the season.
On the other hand, Kerala and Karnataka will also see less rain during July-August. As per the forecast, the first part of the rainy season across the country will be better than the latter. A good start of monsoon is expected in June.
Rain forecast from June to September
- June may receive 107% of the rainfall against the Long Period Average (166.9 mm). That is, 70% of normal, 20% excessive and 10% less rain may occur.
- In July, 100% rainfall is expected against the long period average (285.3 mm). That is, 65% will be normal, 20% excessive and 15% less rain.
- In August, 95% of rainfall is expected against the long period average (258.2 mm). That is, 60% normal, 10% excessive and 30% less rain.
- 90% of rainfall is expected in September against the long period average (170.2 mm). That means 20% normal, 10% excessive and 70% less rain.
Monsoon will be protected from El Nino
The last 2 monsoon seasons had back-to-back La Nia effects. Earlier, La Nia started decreasing rapidly during the winter season, but its return has stopped due to the intensification of easterly winds. However, the La Nina of the Pacific Ocean is likely to prevail till the onset of Southwest Monsoon. Therefore, the existence of El Nio that disturbs the monsoon is generally ruled out.