NEW DELHI: If it is back to future in Uttar Pradesh, it has to be “BJP vs SP”. And the common link in the state’s return to the bipolarity of the 1990s is a Yadav chieftain leading the anti-BJP force. Except that, now it is the son of the father whose wrangling with the “communal forces” once had the country in its thrall.
The Mandate 2022 not just settled the BJP as the overwhelmingly dominant force in the state politics, but also planted Mulayam Singh Yadav’s heir Akhilesh as the principal rival, who has nothing to worry from BSP which has again been decimated and from Congress which failed to emerge from the margins despite the time and energy invested by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. It is a vast change from the post-demolition phase when SP under Mulayam had to contend with a rising BSP and also a falling but vibrant Congress. Their overlapping catchment area led to a voter division that hurt the SP at the hustings. No wonder, SP could gain a mandate to rule only in 2012 when, after the withering away of BJP, it was the only challenger to the BSP.
In the defeat, Akhilesh will draw comfort from the fact that the state elections will remove the ambiguity from the minds of different social groups facing multi-polarity till now. And, he would be the main beneficiary of any anti-government sentiment. For the 48-year-old, who has already been a chief minister for five years, it is no mean achievement.
Akhilesh would have preferred a miracle this time itself, as playing the long game is hardly the outlook of the GenNext politicians who tend to go by the wisdom that “in the longterm, we are all dead”.
Yet, there is much for the young Yadav to be happy about. The withering away of BSP would force two important social groups to take sides – Muslims and Dalits. While automatic consolidation of the former will help the SP duck overt messaging to the community that plays into the polarizing hands of the BJP, a smart positioning as a soft, all-embracing Mandal force can help it also signal to the Dalits.
This is where a clear line-up helps the SP. But Akhilesh will have to step up the game with greater clarity and stronger commitment. A direct, organic outreach to non-Yadav OBCs (most backwards) post-2017 defeat would not have required the shortcuts of late-hour embracing of Swami Prasad Maurya, Dara Singh Chauhan, OP Rajbhar. There are backwards, who were part of the Mulayam tent but have drifted to the BJP, who need to be wooed back. And any desire to be a potent anti-BJP player would require a round the clock presence in the cut and thrust of heartland politics, unlike the long absence that marked his post-2017 stint in the opposition. As many argue, fear of enforcement agencies will have to be set aside.
It is going to be a long haul for the new-age “netaji”. But, he would sure be smiling that Mandate 2022 may not have propelled him to the top, but it still put him at the front and centre of the battle ahead in the Hindi heartland.
FacebookTwitterLinkedinEMail