The bubble arrangement enabling international flights during this period will accordingly lapse on March 26, the last day of the 2021-22 winter schedule.
Limited capacity under bubble flights had led to skyhigh air fares.
Now even as regular flights resume, it remains to be seen how much fare relief — if any — passengers will get.
The ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict has pushed crude to a several year high of of $130. Jet fuel prices globally are also at a 14-year high.
Combined with longer routes that many international airlines take to avoid overflying Russian airspace, the additional fuel burden may limit fare correction post resumption of regular flights.
In a tweet, aviation minister J M Scindia said: “After deliberation with stakeholders and keeping in view the decline in Covid caseload, we have decided to resume international travel from March 27 onwards. Air Bubble arrangements will also stand revoked thereafter. With this step, I am confident the sector will reach new heights!”
After deliberation with stakeholders &keeping in view the decline in the #COVID19 caseload,we have decided to resum… https://t.co/aUcye67WCh
— Jyotiraditya M. Scindia (@JM_Scindia) 1646741374000
In an official statement, the aviation ministry said: “The international operations shall be subject to strict adherence to (current) ministry of health and family welfare guidelines for international travel and as amended from time to time.”
India had suspended regular international flights to and from the country on March 23, 2020. The plan to resume them on December 25, 2021 had to be shelved due to Omicron.
“After having recognised the increased vaccination coverage across the globe and in consultation with the stakeholders, the government of India has decided to resume scheduled commercial international passenger services to/from India from March 27, 2022, start of Summer Schedule 2022. The suspension of scheduled commercial international passenger services to/from India, thus, stands extended only upto 11.59 pm (IST) on March 26 and air bubble arrangements shall accordingly be extended to this extent only,” the statement added.
Air India still overflies the Russian airspace, something that a majority of western airlines don’t as of now.
As a result, Air India nonstops on several routes are currently taking an hour less than those operated by carriers like United, British Airways and Lufthansa. United has already suspended Delhi-San Francisco and Mumbai-Newark routes for this reason.
Apart from further limiting capacity, Russia’s war on Ukraine — that has led to crude going past $130 a barrel now and rupee crashing to 77 — could dash the hopes of international fares dropping significantly posts resumption of scheduled flight.
This factor is weighing on minds of airlines that plan to add flights. AI, for instance, is learnt to be considering more US nonstops given the relaxed quarantine & testing norms globally. Vistara, now AI’s sister concern thanks to a common parent Tata, is also weighing the option of starting US nonstops by leasing planes.
“We are trying to see if an interim capacity increase is possible. The market is going to open up and we are looking at options, including nonstops to the US. We have started operational preparedness for flying in the US. The only headwind is crude (price). Flying direct to the US is fuel-intensive. While fares may be high now, they will fall once capacity is back (post resumption of regular flights). Those things also come into play during our evaluations. A decision will be taken in the coming weeks,” Vistara CEO Vinod Kannan had recently told TOI before the Ukraine-Russia crisis blew up.
With crude now at $130 — and projected to touch $185 before the year-end — ultra long hauls become economically unviable if they have to take longer route that means flying for over an hour extra.
Senior officials across both Indian and international airlines say India could become the transit point between the west and the east as western airlines are not overflying Russian airspace.
For instance a London-Beijing flight will now have to fly towars Delhi, then northeast India before going northwards towards China.
“Oil prices are on fire with crude touching $130, so operating longer direct routes to avoid Russian airspace will be very expensive for airlines. If crude remains this high or surges even more, it may make sense to have a fuelling stopover somewhere like the Gulf or India. These options are being weighed,” said a senior official of a leading international airline.