Crisis on BJP in MP, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka: Only 80 seats confirmed in Madhya Pradesh, no CM face in Chhattisgarh; difficult to win karnataka

Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka are the three states where elections are round the corner and the BJP is seeing trouble for itself. The government will be formed here, the party is not able to claim it. The reason is also visible, but the leadership has no solution. The party’s survey in Madhya Pradesh has shown that the seats will be less than 100. And the government cannot be formed in this much. The party does not have any CM face in Chhattisgarh. Anti-incumbency is not being broken in Karnataka.

I spoke to senior party leaders and experts in all the three states. Asked him why the party was feeling trapped in these once-fortified territories.

Madhya Pradesh: Both BJP and Congress have a base of 80 seats each.
In Madhya Pradesh, both BJP and Congress have a base of 80 seats each. The majority is on 116 seats. Here the fight is for these 36 seats, which will form the government. A senior leader of the state BJP says, ‘The Chief Minister, the state organization and the high command are continuously getting their surveys done. We know their figures, but they are not such that we can share them with you. Right now the seats seem to be coming within 100, so this time MLAs’ tickets will be cut on a large scale.

‘Tickets for 50 MLAs were to be cut in the last assembly elections itself, but a big leader got adamant. Because of his stubbornness, he could not deduct anyone’s ticket. This time the organization will not come under anyone’s pressure because it had lost the last election. That is why surveys are being conducted at multiple levels. There will be only one criterion for giving tickets and that is victory. Then it does not matter which group the candidate belongs to.

On the removal of CM Shivraj Singh, he says, ‘Nobody knows what will happen in BJP tomorrow. Till date Shivraj Singh Chouhan is the face of the party, but even the Madhya Pradesh BJP leaders do not know what is going on in Delhi.

Shivraj Singh Chouhan has been CM in Madhya Pradesh for 16 years.
Shivraj Singh Chouhan became the Chief Minister of the state for the fourth time on 23 March 2020. From 30 November 2005 to 17 December 2018, he remained the CM continuously for 13 years and 17 days. Then the Congress government remained for about one and a half years and Kamal Nath became the CM. From March 23, 2020, once again the CM’s chair came to Shivraj. It has been almost 16 years since he was the Chief Minister. So far no one has been the Chief Minister in the state for so long.

Senior journalist Rakesh Dixit says- ‘In 2018, BJP was stopped at 107 seats. This time also the situation has not changed much. Congress is looking more organized this time than last time. BJP has also sharpened the edge of Hindutva with schemes like ‘Ladli Behna’. In this budget too, there was nothing much special except the schemes related to religion and women.

Rakesh Dixit says ‘There are only 8 months left for the election, so even the CM cannot be changed now. Earlier also the party could not find any such face who could replace Shivraj. The BJP is against the distribution of free Revadi, but the ‘Ladli Bahna’ scheme was launched in Madhya Pradesh before the elections. In this, 1 thousand rupees will be added to the account of women. Such schemes show that the party is in a quandary.

However, party spokesperson Hitesh Vajpayee says that ‘even though the party lost some seats in 2018, our vote percentage was more than the Congress’.

Chhattisgarh: No CM face, trust only on PM Modi
Chhattisgarh is a more difficult state for the BJP than Madhya Pradesh. Here he is not in power, but in opposition. BJP has made major changes in the organization to return to the state. Three-time MLA Narayan Chandel has been made the leader of the opposition and Bilaspur MP Arun Sao as the state president. The party is also keeping an eye on the internal fight of the Congress, but till now the BJP has not been able to create any movement against the Congress.

CM Bhupesh Baghel has announced schemes for almost every category, these have also been implemented. This includes everything from loan waiver to unemployment allowance. Here the challenge for BJP is also of CM face. No one knows who will be the CM if BJP wins.

There is a big equation of backward class politics in the state, so BJP can bet on any backward class leader. CM Bhupesh Baghel comes from this class. Congress is playing backward class card through Bhupesh Baghel. Out of 90 assembly seats, Congress currently has 71 seats and BJP has 14 seats. Congress has won in the recently held local bodies elections. The Congress has control over all the 14 municipal corporations in the state.

According to sources, the BJP has not conducted any survey here so far. Ever since the party sent Om Mathur as in-charge, he has been working with the organization till the booth level, but in today’s situation, when elections are held, the Congress is looking stronger. It is difficult to predict what the situation will be in the state in the next 6 months.

Karnataka: 70 to 75 seats in Sangh report
The BJP is in power in Karnataka since 20 July 2019. In these 4 years, he had to change the Chief Minister once. Basavaraj Bommai is the CM here from 28 July 2021. In February, the RSS submitted a survey report to the BJP in Karnataka. In this he was told to win 70 to 75 seats. 113 seats are required for majority.

The condition of BJP is such that BS Yeddyurappa, who was removed from the post of CM by the party and who has announced his retirement, is now taking forward the election campaign only on his trust. The reason for this is the survey reports, which showed that the current CM and party president Nalin Kumar Kateel has failed to change the attitude of the people towards the government.

According to senior journalist Belagaru Samiullah, ‘There is a tremendous anti-incumbency against the BJP. Corruption is a big issue here. On March 3, Rs 8 crore cash was recovered from the premises of BJP MLA Madal Virupakshappa. His son was arrested by the Lokayukta while taking a bribe of Rs 40 lakh. This has put the party in more trouble. Rallies of PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah are being held continuously, but the party is not able to change the atmosphere of anti-incumbency.

Now the campaign is being done by pairing Yeddyurappa and PM Modi. Yeddyurappa can consolidate the Lingayat votes, but alone cannot win over the BJP in the entire state. People are not reaching the Chief Minister’s rallies. The campaigning of Congress in the state is very aggressive. She is besieging the BJP on the issue of corruption.

BJP neither decreased nor increased in North East
Elections were held in the three states of North East Nagaland, Tripura and Meghalaya in February. In the results that came on March 2, the BJP alliance got a majority in Tripura-Nagaland. In Meghalaya, it forged an alliance with the largest party, the NPP. That is, the party is in government in all the three states. Despite this, the growth of the party has stalled.

If we see from 2013, when there was UPA government at the center and BJP was in opposition. The BJP’s vote share was less than 2% in the three North East states of Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura. In 2018 the party’s vote share reached 10% in Meghalaya, 15% in Nagaland and 44% in Tripura. By then BJP had completed 4 years in the central government.

After 5 years i.e. in 2023, BJP contested on 60 seats in Meghalaya and won 2 seats. In 2018, the party contested on 47 seats, even then it got 2 seats. Then the vote share was 9.6% and now it is 9.33%.

These figures show that the BJP could not propel itself forward in Meghalaya. This is the situation when PM Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah had held big rallies in the state and had campaigned for central ministers. Experts say that the main reason behind this is the anti-Christian image of the BJP.

Now let’s talk about Nagaland. Here the BJP contested the elections in alliance with the National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) and won 37 out of 60 seats. NDPP had fielded candidates on 40 seats. Out of this 25 won. BJP had fielded candidates on 20 seats, it won 12 seats.

In 2018 too, BJP had won only 12 seats and then its vote share was 15.31%. This time the vote share has reached 18.81%. That is, the number of seats is the same as last time, but the vote share has increased by about 3%.

In Tripura, the BJP contested the elections in alliance with the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) as in 2018. Last time BJP had won 36 seats, this time it has come down to 32. Its coalition party could win only one seat. With the decrease in seats in Tripura, the BJP’s vote share has also decreased. It was at 44% in 2018, this time it was reduced to 39%.

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