Covid Cases UP in Delhi, 2 Other States; IIT Prof Says No 4th Wave: Decoding India’s Fresh Surge & Possible Causes

The Covid-19 cases in the country has started to surge again with Delhi, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh reporting a spike of infections. Delhi, which was reporting around 200 cases last week, is currently reporting over 500 daily infections with positivity rate at 5.33 percent. The national capital, that had registered 202 cases last Tuesday, on Sunday reported 517 Covid Cases.

Thought the Covid infections in Haryana is lesser, the daily count has increased by four times until Sunday. The state breached the 200-mark on Saturday, with most of the infections coming from Gurugram.

On the other hand, 135 people have tested positive for the virus in Uttar Pradesh on Sunday. The active caseload has now crossed the 600-mark with Ghaziabad and Gautam Buddh Nagar on alert.

Country’s Weekly Cases Surge

After 11 weeks of declining Covid infections, India’s caseload has surged again this week rising by 35 percent against the previous seven days’ count. Several state including Delhi, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh reported a spike in infections. Despite the overall case numbers remaining low, the surge was restricted to the three states.

According to a report in Times of India, the country recorded over 6,610 fresh cases in the week ending Sunday, against a count of 4,900 in the previous seven days.

Meanwhile the Covid-19 deaths continue to decline in the country with only 27 new deaths recorded during the week. Last week 54 deaths were reported, which includes 13 from Kerala.

Fourth Wave not Building as of now

The possibility of a fourth wave in India remains low, IIT Kanpur professor Maninda Agarwal said. The professor’s mathematical model has been a reference for understanding the pandemic activity over the last two years. “The surge in Covid-19 cases is not building up the fourth wave, as of now.”

He further said that the present rise in Delhi-NCR and adjoining districts appears to be due to the lifting of Covid curbs. Prof Agarwal added that the natural immunity against Covid-19 among the people is above 90 percent, which may not allow new variants to thrive and spread.

‘Covid Spread’ Increased by 500% Among Delhi Residents

The number of people in Delhi-NCR reporting someone getting Covid in their close social network has risen by 500% in the last 15 days, a survey has claimed. Around 19 per cent residents of Delhi-NCR responding to a survey revealed they have one or more individuals in their close network who has had COVID in the last 15 days. The ‘Covid network prevalence’ marks an over 500 per cent increase in the last 15 days, said LocalCircles, the firm that conducted the survey.

It asked the respondents: How many individuals (including children) do you have in your close social network (family, friends, neighbours, colleagues) in Delhi-NCR that have had COVID in the last 15 days? In response, the majority of the respondents, 70 per cent, said: No one in the last 15 days. An 11 per cent said 1 or 2, eight per cent said 3-5, and another 11 per cent couldn’t say.

Possible Reason Behind Rise

Though there is no definite reasons for the rise in Delhi and Haryana, it is being considered due to the withdrawal of mandatory masking and doing away with all Covid-restrictions.

Moreover, schools and offices have reopened physicall and people are travelling like pre-Covid days. The businesses have also resumed operation at full capacity.

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