The Congress’s win on seven of 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka has set the stage for another political drama in the state, putting a question mark on speculated plans to have rotational chief ministership after 2.5 years. Analysts say that the Congress’s central leadership would not want to make any major changes in the state right now that could cause an internal rebellion and upset the apple cart.
Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar, who was hoping to pitch himself for the coveted seat had the party won in double digits in the Lok Sabha elections, will now have to cool his heels. But the biggest upset for Shivakumar has been the loss of Bengaluru Rural seat, a party fortress which was contested by his brother DK Suresh. Bengaluru Rural is a Vokkaliga-dominated region which the BJP has successfully breached after eyeing it for long.
“The Congress may not want to rock the boat in Karnataka with any leadership change as of now. They would encourage the state leadership for a more vigorous implementation of the guarantees. Shivakuamr could retain control of the party and would have to wait in the wings to get his chance at being the CM,” says political analyst Sandeep Shastri.
Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy CM Shivakumar during their election campaigns had pitched to the voters, albeit subtly, that the Lok Sabha election could also influence the continuation or change of chief minister.
DK Shivakumar, who had pinned his hopes on the Congress’s performance in the Lok Sabha polls to lay claim for the top seat, finds himself in a dilemma now. Had the Congress won a good haul it would have bolstered his image following the Assembly election win and he could have hoped to be adequately rewarded.
An interesting observation made by a senior Congress minister in Karnataka speaks volumes. “Candidates whom DK Shivakumar pushed for, be it Mrunal Hebbalkar, Star Chandru or Rajeev Gowda lost the election. But those who were Siddaramaiah’s candidates came out winning,” said the leader who did not want to be named.
Soon after the state election victory, the Congress high command had voted in favour of Siddaramaiah to be the CM, while giving Shivakumar the post of deputy CM as the former had the support of more elected MLAs. It is said that internally it was agreed upon that Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar would be given a term each of 2.5 years, with the former getting the first chance.
“Do you want me or not?” Siddaramaiah asked the voters in Varuna, the Assembly seat he represents, while campaigning in the Chamarajanagar Lok Sabha constituency. Siddaramaiah had often called Varuna his lucky constituency as he had won from the seat in 2013 and became the Chief Minister.
He contested from the seat a second time in 2023, won and became the CM for the second time. He went one step further this election and said that if Varuna registered more than 60,000 votes, it would not only make him happy, but “nobody can touch me”, a message meant for DK Shivakumar who has been eyeing the chief minister’s seat since the Congress’s exemplary performance in the Assembly polls.
Not far away from Varuna, in Mandya, Shivakumar made a similar pitch to the voters. “You had me in mind when you voted for the Congress and gave us the highest number for seats in the Assembly elections. You had a wish in mind and I will not let it fail. Don’t worry about it,” said Shivakumar, appealing to the Vokkaliga community to come out and vote in large numbers in favour of the Congress. He himself belongs to the community which dominates the Old Mysore region of Karnataka.
While the JDS prides in calling itself the political face of the Vokkaligas, Shivakumar has been trying to break the trend by portraying himself as the strongest and most influential Vokkaliga leader in Karnataka.
Shivakumar’s confidence comes from the performance of the Congress in this Vokkaliga-dominated belt, where the party swept most of the seats in the Assembly polls. The Congress, in the 2023 Assembly polls, had won as many as 37 out of the 59 segments spread across nine districts of the region.
This, sources close to Shivakumar said, was due to the consolidation of Vokkaliga community votes in order to see him become the CM. The last Congress CM from the Vokkaliga community was SM Krishna who was elected in 1999. Shivakumar is considered to be a protégé of Krishna.
Siddaramaiah, who announced that 2023 would be his last election, has seen his loyalists rally around him, asserting publicly that the 76-year-old will serve his full five-year term, which pushed Shivakumar’s buttons.
The five guarantees on which the Congress won 135 out of 224 seats in the Karnataka Assembly polls — Shakthi, Yuva Nidhi, Anna Bhagya, Gruha Lakshmi, and Gruha Jyothi — are seen as Siddaramaiah’s initiatives built on the Bhagya schemes he introduced during his first term as chief minister in 2013. This was also another reason to make Siddaramaiah the CM.
The election outcome on June 4 has dampened Shivakumar’s resolve to claim his due. Shivakumar also lacks an open endorsement or support from MLAs, except from a limited group of MLAs and his brother DK Suresh. Legislators are not seen openly supporting Shivakumar for fear that they may lose their ground with CM Siddaramaiah, who clearly is more powerful at this time.
Yathindra Siddaramaiah had publicly announced that his father will complete a full five-year term this time as well. He was supported by other senior leaders like KP Rajanna, Satish Jarkiholi, among others, though there has been a call to add more deputy CMs to bring in a better balance of caste representation.
Political analyst BS Arun believes that there will not be a change in leadership in Karnataka. The analyst feels the party should be happy with its performance.
“The gap between the NDA and the Congress was not much and with the BJP itself not in a great position in the Centre, it would not look at toppling a government in Karnataka where the saffron party has won just 66 seats out of 224 seats. Falling short of majority in the general elections also would force the BJP to take it slow when it comes to deciding to topple the Congress in Karnataka,” Arun observed.