A new party led by Naftali Bennett could change the distribution of mandates in favor of the opposition as he continues to climb in the polls.
Lazar Research, led by Dr. Menachem Lazar and in collaboration with Panel4All, conducted the survey for Maariv.
The survey indicated that a new party led by Bennett would gain two more seats compared to the previous survey conducted two weeks ago, bringing the total to 23 mandates. The data analysis showed that most of the party’s support would come from undecided voters (9 seats) and those who currently back National Unity and Yisrael Beytenu (five and four seats, respectively).
Bennett’s new party would take 19 seats away from the current opposition, leaving them with only 40 projected seats compared to 59 currently projected.
However, Bennett joining the opposition bloc would give him a coalition majority of 63 seats because, according to the survey, four more seats would go to the new Bennett party heading the bloc.
The poll also showed that the Likud party is down by one seat this week, while National Unity is up by a similar amount, stabilizing at an equal number of 21 mandates.
Several major fluctuations
Several other major changes were also recorded, although the difference in the bloc balance is insignificant: 51 for the coalition parties against 59 for the opposition and ten seats for the Arab parties.
For the first time in several weeks, Benny Gantz returned to the lead over Benjamin Netanyahu for the premiership, with 40% support, compared to 39% (another 21% have no opinion).
Against Yair Lapid, Netanyahu leads with 46% compared to 34%, but Bennett wins over Netanyahu by a considerable margin of 14%: 49% support for Bennett versus 35% for Netanyahu.
October 7 memorial ceremony
According to the survey, the Israeli public is inclined to support the non-governmental national memorial ceremony for the October 7 massacre, organized by families of hostages, bereaved families, families of evacuees, and survivors.
The national ceremony received 45% support, while the governmental state ceremony, which Transport Minister Miri Regev believes in, received only 16%. Another 26% replied that it was not yet time for ceremonies, and 13% had no opinion.
The breakdown showed a clear division between the two blocs. An absolute majority of the voters of the opposition parties (68%) support the family’s ceremony, compared to 46% of the voters of the coalition parties, who support the government ceremony.
If elections were held today
In response to the question: If new Knesset elections were held today, who would you vote for?
The results were as follows: Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, received 21 seats, down from 22 in the previous survey.
National Unity, led by Benny Gantz, received 21 seats, an increase from 20.
Yisrael Beytenu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, gained 15 seats, up from 14.
Yesh Atid, led by Yair Lapid, received 14 seats, a decrease from 15.
The Democrats (Labor and Meretz), led by Yair Golan, maintained nine seats.
Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben Gvir, received nine seats, down from 10.
Shas, led by Aryeh Deri, held steady at nine seats.
United Torah Judaism, led by Yitzhak Goldknopf and Moshe Gafni, gained eight seats, up from seven.
Hadash-Ta’al, led by Ayman Odeh and Ahmed Tibi, received six seats, up from five.
Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, dropped to four seats from five.
Religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smotrich, maintained four seats.
According to the survey, the coalition bloc would have 51 seats (52 last week), the opposition bloc 59 (58), and the Arab parties 10.
In response to the question: “If Knesset elections were held today and a new party led by Naftali Bennett was running, which party would you vote for?”
The results were as follows: a new party led by Naftali Bennett received 23 seats, Likud 19, National Unity 14, Yesh Atid 11, Yisrael Beytenu 9, Shas 9, Otzma Yehudit 8, United Torah Judaism 7, the Democrats 6, Hadash-Ta’al 6, Religious Zionist Party 4, and Ra’am 4.
In such a situation, the survey showed that the coalition block would have 47 seats, compared to 40 for the opposition, 23 for Bennett, and 10 for the Arab parties.