Around midnight of September 13, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale attack along Armenia’s border causing the biggest escalation between the two countries since the 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh.
As the eyes of the world remain focused on the war in Ukraine, another aggression looms in the Caucasus that largely remains overlooked. Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of attacking its borders using artillery and combat UAVs, while Azerbaijan, acknowledging the attack, accused Armenia of ‘provocation’ and called the attack a counter-measure against the ‘Armenian saboteurs’ who allegedly planted mines in the Azerbaijani territory.
Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, as well as the country’s defence ministry, refuted the accusations of provocation, stating that the Azerbaijani attack on Armenia proper was unprovoked.
ALSO READ | Zelenskyy sees damage in recaptured towns; Russia strikes city’s water system
The fighting took a pause following a ceasefire declared early Thursday but not before killing 155 soldiers from both sides in just two days. The attack followed the targeting of civilian infrastructure in more than two dozen Armenian settlements, resulting in a yet unclear number of civilian casualties.
Official Yerevan also reported that territories, more precisely military positions, were captured by Azerbaijan; around 3000 civilians were reported being displaced from their homes in Syunik and Gegharkunik regions in Eastern and Southern Armenia, respectively.
Heavy artillery fire being reported from Azerbaijan towards Armenia. pic.twitter.com/q3uNO4mJHi
— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) September 12, 2022
The fighting flared up amid Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution and the demarcation and delimitation of the borders between the two South Caucasian countries.
Almost two years after the war erupted on September 27, 2020 over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, the countries were seen engaged in several military conflicts and border clashes. Still, the relatively bigger fights since then took place inside Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the ongoing tensions are inside ‘Armenia Proper’, with some targeted settlements on around a 2-hour drive from the capital Yerevan.
Leaders from both the countries, Prime Minister Pashinyan and President Ilham Aliyev, met in Brussels only two weeks ago — on August 31 – to discuss further steps on peace talks. After two weeks of silence about the results of the meeting, Pashinyan finally spoke on Tuesday, saying that they failed to achieve agreements on the main issues between the countries regarding the rights of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh, the final status of the breakaway region, and the opening of regional communications links shut since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
The opening of transport links between Armenia and Azerbaijan, connecting Armenia to Russia through Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhichevan and then to Turkey, was stipulated by the November 9 2020 agreement, signed between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia, bringing an end to the Second Nagorno-Karabakh.
The sides, however, did not agree on the details of the road since Azerbaijan kept demanding a ‘Zangezur corridor’, expecting it to be a sovereign road under Azerbaijani jurisdiction, yet both Armenia and the mediator Russia were firm at the level of statements about having the road under Armenian control with the security ensured by Russian border troops.
The tripartite agreement significantly strengthened Russia’s presence in the region not only as a mediator but also by the deployment of additional 2,000 troops to Nagorno-Karabakh as part of the Russian Peacekeeping Mission. Thus, Armenia became dependent on Russia as ever since the Soviet Times.
Armenia and Russia are long-term strategic allies with bilateral pacts about supporting each other in case of military aggression. Armenia is also a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation(CSTO) — a military pact of six members, including Armenia, Russia, Belarus and three Central Asian countries, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.
Armenia requested the help of both Russia and CSTO, expecting military assistance and a sharp response to the Azerbaijani attack. While Russia’s position is relatively mild, with several statements about the need for ‘de-escalation’ and continuation of the peace talks with Russian mediation, CSTO appeared to be sending a working group to monitor the situation on the border in response to Armenia’s request for military assistance.
Amid Armenia’s strategic ally’s silence, however, several countries appeared to be more explicit, condemning the Azerbaijani attack and the targeting of civilian infrastructure. The Secretary of State of the United States, Antony Blinken, “urged” “Azerbaijan to cease the hostilities and “disengage military forces” in a phone conversation with President Aliyev on September 13.
The US State Department spokesperson Ned Price also appeared to blame Azerbaijan in his daily briefing on September 13. “The fact is, we have seen significant evidence of Azerbaijani shelling inside Armenia, significant damage to Armenian infrastructure”, Price said.
The Indian Foreign Ministry, too, called upon the “aggressor side to immediately cease hostilities”, without naming the aggressor. The statement of the Indian MEA appeared to be disappointing for Azerbaijan as the MFA representative Leyla Abdullayeva complained about the vagueness in addressing the “aggressor” side.
Russia, CSTO, the United States and the European Union have reported about sending their representatives to the region to mediate the peaceful resolution of the conflict. Iran and Georgia, Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s neighbours, expressed readiness to mediate the ceasefire, while Turkey, Azerbaijan’s close ally, expressed total support for Azerbaijan.
Russian president Vladimir Putin is set to hold a meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, Associated Press reported on Thursday. Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan is unlikely to attend the summit owing to the situation in the country.
(Ani Avetisyan is an Armenia-based journalist. She is currently covering Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh for OC Media.)
ALSO READ | Delivered S-400 to India on time regardless of US pressure, says Russia
— ENDS —