The Varachha Road assembly seat, a Patidar-dominated area in Gujarat, was the epicentre of violence during the community’s agitation in 2015. Carved out of the Surat North and Surat West constituencies, the seats that Aam Aadmi Party won in the Surat civic polls fall largely in this constituency. However, the memories of the Patidar agitation seem to have faded among the people ahead of the coming assembly polls.
While Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) leaders are still trying to reignite the sentiments, BJP claims to have the support of the community. Every party strives to get open backing of Naresh Patel, the influential Khodaldham temple trust chairman, to send a message to the community. With many in Gujarat politics ready to write off PAAS after the likes of Hardik Patel who were intrinsic to the party branching out to other political parties, as the agitation for reservation ended with the government accepting the demands, the Patidar organisation says that it is getting “guidance” from Naresh Patel.
Alpesh Katheriya, who became the main convenor of PAAS after Hardik Patel’s exit from the organisation, while speaking to News18.com confirmed that they are getting “guidance” from the Khodalham trust chief and only after studying the political scenario will they lend support to a political party.
Many in the BJP believe that mere guidance won’t suffice as Patel hasn’t come out in support of a party yet.
When asked about the Patidars flexing muscles during elections after 2017, Kumar Kanani, BJP MLA from Varachha, said that people have no memory of the agitation.
“Andolan has ended, people do not even remember it. All Patidars are with us as of today,” he said. Dhirubhai Gajera, who fought against him from the Congress in 2017, joined the BJP in 2021.
Why Patidars are important
There are approximately 12 to 14 per cent Patidars in Gujarat who hold sway on 60 assembly seats. While some may say that they have a significant presence in more than 100 constituencies, BJP leaders believe Patidars can impact 40 seats.
The community has a sizable presence in Saurashtra, north Gujarat and parts of Surat. The Aam Aadmi Party had won 27 seats in the Surat municipal polls and reportedly fielded many PAAS leaders.
The Bharatiya Janata Party had faced resistance from Patidars in the 2017 assembly elections and the vote share from Patidars, traditional voters of the party, decreased especially in Saurashtra region.
Since then the party has taken steps to assuage their anger, accepting their demands for reservation and making a Patel chief minister.
BJP leaders believe that the community is going to lend support to them in the upcoming assembly polls. “There has been massive outreach among Patidars. The Prime Minister and home minister both have participated in inauguration of various projects including a hospital in Saurashtra. Earlier in the year, the PM had inaugurated an education complex backed by the Patidar trust. We have accepted Patidars’ demand for reservation as well,” added a senior BJP leader.
The Patidars went against the Congress after it brought in the Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslims (KHAM) ploy as they felt alienated and since then they have been backing the BJP that had brought in the PHAK (Patel, Harijan, Adivasis and Kshatriya) formula.
PAAS relevance after agitation
With PAAS’s demand for reservation met by the BJP government, there are no real issues left with the front to oppose the ruling party, feel leaders of the outfit. The saffron party believes that in this election, the Patidars will support it, unlike in previous polls, and its vote share will eventually increase.
“Even in the elections of 2017 when the agitation had the most impact, we won Patidar-dominated seats; just that the percentage of winning seats was a little less. Now that we have accepted their demands, there is no real reason why the community should be against us. PAAS too will not have much of an influence if it decides to work against us,” said a senior BJP leader.
PAAS too believes that the BJP has accepted its demands but that is no guarantee of its support to the party. When asked what PAAS’s decision would be, Dinesh Bamariya said, “The BJP accepted our demands but that does not mean we will support it. Congress supported us financially during the agitation but people who are angry are getting associated with AAP and we hope they do something in education and employment.”
Feud in PAAS and a tilt towards AAP
Alpesh Katheriya had reportedly become furious with Dinesh Bamariya after the latter during a Tiranga Yatra claimed that PAAS will support anyone who can give tickets to its 23 leaders. However, both say that PAAS is united and it was a one-off event of a tweet and cannot be seen as a break in the organisation.
“We are together and Alpesh Katheriya is our main convener. Hardik had gone to BJP and others too have left for other parties,” said Bamariya.
Katheriya said that PAAS’s two more demands are yet to be met by the government and they will assess the situation before deciding where to go.
“Our two main issues include taking the police cases back and family members of those 14 people who died during the agitation should be given jobs. And even if the BJP accepts our demands, it’s not that we will sit with the BJP. We are meeting people and we will go with others if they do not accept our demands and damage the BJP. We feel that there are many who are against the ruling party,” said the PAAS leader.
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